Main trends of research in the social and human ... - unesdoc - Unesco

3 84 Jean Bourgeois-Pichat
the description of phenomena. In sample surveys, one observes in order to see,
without knowing in advance what is going to be found.24 We rely on sampling
to increase our understanding, and it became indispensable from the moment
when demography set itself the task of comprehending phenomena.
Progress in data analysis
93. But it is not only the method of collecting data that has been changed,
progress has also been made in analytical methods. Demography has given
birth to a new discipline: [demographic analysis, which has clarified ideas,
classified methods, caused principles to be reviewed, and raised questions. It is
in full process of development and ought to make its presence still more felt in
the years immediately ahead.
Remarkable progress has also been achieved in mathematical statistics, offer-
ing the researcher new methods of analysis.
A certain hesitancy is still observable in putting these new methods to use,
because they call for detailed calculations the results: of which cannot be fore-
seen.
Electronic computers
94. Electronic computers ought to get rid of this disadvantage. One might
hesitate when faced with a calculation requiring several weeks’ work. There is no
longer any need for this when the same calculation can be done electronically in
a few seconds. This means, it is true, that the researcher should have been trained
accordingly, and no doubt training programmes should now be altered to take
this new development into account.
95. But demography stands to gain even more from electronic computing.
Like most of the human sciences, demography is unable to make use of experi-
ment to which researchers in the natural sciences owe their most brilliant
discoveries. Besides, we have already explained how the observer disturbs
phenomena by the mere fact of observing them. For the human sciences, these
are serious handicaps. However, electronic computing, by making it possible
to simulate the behaviour of populations, is in the process of rapidly changing
the situation. By making use of the laws of probability in their effect on individ-
ual motivations established by correct analysis of an observation of demo-
graphic events, it is possible in an electronic computer to simulate the result of
the adoption of such laws by a population. And by causing these laws to vary,
the conditions for a pseudo-experiment are brought about. One can, in particu-
lar, observe the variation in phenomena by repeating the experiments. Up to
now, we did not know how to calculate this variation except in very simple
cases, as the formulas quickly became extremely complicated. Although it is
useful to know the average value of a parameter, it is often equally useful to
know how that parameter is distributed about such an average. Indeed, it is
indispensable if the object is to compare a number of populations with each
other.
It is not yet very clear where this use of simulations on electronic machines is