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Main trends of research in the social and human ... - unesdoc - Unesco

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560 Raymond Boudon<br />

‘<strong>the</strong>ory’ is also given. These set out to analyse well-def<strong>in</strong>ed phenomena, but<br />

unlike game <strong>the</strong>ory, <strong>the</strong>y consist <strong>of</strong> models which are to a large extent <strong>in</strong>dependent<br />

<strong>of</strong> one ano<strong>the</strong>r from <strong>the</strong> po<strong>in</strong>t <strong>of</strong> view <strong>of</strong> logic, as, for <strong>in</strong>stance, with <strong>the</strong><br />

‘<strong>the</strong>ory <strong>of</strong> economic cycles’. This title is made to cover a multitude <strong>of</strong> models<br />

characterized by a common aim: to analyse <strong>the</strong> cyclic phenomena which are<br />

features <strong>of</strong> almost all modern economic systems. The problem <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>ory <strong>of</strong><br />

cycles, <strong>in</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r words, is to expla<strong>in</strong> why all modern economic systems seem subject<br />

to cyclic phenomena follow<strong>in</strong>g a def<strong>in</strong>ite pattern. Briefly, <strong>the</strong> models<br />

it is required to construct are not <strong>in</strong>ductive but <strong>the</strong>oretical. As we see, when we<br />

talk <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>ory <strong>of</strong> economic cycles <strong>the</strong> word is used <strong>in</strong> a very different sense<br />

from <strong>the</strong> one given it <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> expression ‘game <strong>the</strong>ory’. The models subsumed<br />

under economic cycle <strong>the</strong>ory are self-conta<strong>in</strong>ed <strong>the</strong>orizations between which, on<br />

occasions, <strong>the</strong> only connexion is <strong>the</strong>ir <strong>the</strong>me, despite <strong>the</strong> fact that certa<strong>in</strong> <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong>m may be considered variously complex versions <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> same hypo<strong>the</strong>sis<br />

(for example <strong>the</strong> successive versions <strong>of</strong> Kalecki’s m0de1).3~<br />

Yet o<strong>the</strong>r discipl<strong>in</strong>es have ‘<strong>the</strong>ories’ comparable <strong>in</strong> logical nature with economic<br />

cycle <strong>the</strong>ory. For <strong>in</strong>stance, <strong>in</strong> sociology, <strong>the</strong>re is <strong>the</strong> analysis <strong>of</strong> diffusion<br />

<strong>and</strong> migration phenomena, <strong>and</strong> <strong>in</strong> anthropology, <strong>the</strong> analysis <strong>of</strong> k<strong>in</strong>ship systems.<br />

F<strong>in</strong>ally <strong>the</strong>re are various ‘general <strong>the</strong>ories’ where ‘<strong>the</strong>ory’ is used <strong>in</strong> a third<br />

sense, one example be<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> formal <strong>the</strong>ory <strong>of</strong> grammars. Here we are not<br />

deal<strong>in</strong>g with a collection <strong>of</strong> more or less <strong>in</strong>dependent models, as with <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>ory<br />

<strong>of</strong> economic cycles. Nor have we a <strong>the</strong>ory closely tied <strong>in</strong> with some reality like<br />

game <strong>the</strong>ory (<strong>the</strong> latter, <strong>in</strong>deed, is <strong>in</strong>conceivable without <strong>the</strong> notion <strong>of</strong> rational<br />

behaviour, which it endeavours, <strong>of</strong> course, to formalize, but which is based on<br />

psychological <strong>and</strong> sociological experience). Ra<strong>the</strong>r we have here a true ma<strong>the</strong>matical<br />

<strong>the</strong>ory which has got <strong>the</strong> same distance away from its ‘raw material’ as<br />

Euclidean geometry from natural circles <strong>and</strong> l<strong>in</strong>es. This <strong>the</strong>ory has already<br />

been mentioned <strong>in</strong> pass<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong> at this po<strong>in</strong>t an example will give a better underst<strong>and</strong><strong>in</strong>g<br />

<strong>of</strong> its nature.<br />

The analysis <strong>of</strong> natural languages led Chomsky to conceive a rule <strong>of</strong> grammar<br />

as a rewrit<strong>in</strong>g rule. Consider for <strong>in</strong>stance <strong>the</strong> follow<strong>in</strong>g rules, where x + y<br />

st<strong>and</strong>s for <strong>the</strong> expression ‘x can be rewritten y’:<br />

s +AB<br />

A + CD<br />

B +ED<br />

C -+ a, <strong>the</strong>, ano<strong>the</strong>r<br />

D -+ ball, boy, girl<br />

E +hit, struck<br />

Apply<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>se rules, we obta<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> sentences: ‘a ball hit <strong>the</strong> girl’, ‘a boy hit<br />

<strong>the</strong> girl’, both grammatically correct. All we need reta<strong>in</strong> <strong>of</strong> this is <strong>the</strong> idea that<br />

a rule <strong>of</strong> grammar can be expressed <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> form x 3 y, where x <strong>and</strong> y represent<br />

ei<strong>the</strong>r terms <strong>in</strong> a non-term<strong>in</strong>al vocabulary (<strong>in</strong> this <strong>in</strong>stance such vocabulary is<br />

made up <strong>of</strong> terms S, A, B, C, D, E.), or terms <strong>in</strong> a term<strong>in</strong>al vocabulary (<strong>in</strong> this<br />

<strong>in</strong>stance: a, <strong>the</strong>, ano<strong>the</strong>r, ball, boy, girl, hit, struck). This representation <strong>of</strong><br />

grammatical rules led Chomsky <strong>and</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r writers to set <strong>the</strong>mselves problems <strong>of</strong><br />

formalization, <strong>and</strong> to raise <strong>the</strong> question, for example, <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> types <strong>of</strong> language

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