Main trends of research in the social and human ... - unesdoc - Unesco

190 W. J. M. Mackenzie
tional affairs can be so rigorously formalized that computer simulation can
be used in a strictly experimental sense to refute or confirm hypotheses.
In general, experience has taught skill and caution, and work based on imita-
tion of natural science certainly represents a coherent and resolute effort to
introduce nomothetic elements into the study of a unique political system. It
would be ridiculous to say at this stage that there exists a nomothetic science of
international politics; nevertheless, the irruption of scientific method into that
sphere (coming along with expensive and sophisticated instruments of destruc-
tion) has had an appreciable effect on the process of policy-making in techno-
logically advanced States.
Traditional. At the same time, there has been a fruitful continuation of study
by more traditional methods, which might perhaps be called idiographic, in
that they approach the problem of establishing ‘laws’ with great diffidence. There
is however a large range of differences within this field and it is difficult to sys-
tematize : indeed, authors in the idiographic manner tend to abjure systematiza-
tion deliberately.
One can perhaps observe three main trends: first, description of the inter-
national system in the context of its historical development; secondly, foreign
policy analysis, based primarily on historical studies of decision-making within
each power and between powers; thirdly, the study of international institutions
as organs of policy-making and administration.
To these one must add at least three other forms of study, which cut across
them and link them: the logical analysis of the choices open in foreign policy
and strategic policy (one must include here not only strategic analysts such as
Hermann Kahn and T. C. Schelling, but also conflict research and peace
research - Anatol Rapoport, Boulding, Galtung) ; the survey of philosophical
and ideological movements and of their capacity to cross State boundaries;
the connexion between international economic studies and international politi-
cal studies in many different contexts.
Work in this idiographic style is generally marked strongly by the personality
and views of its author, and each book is a special case.
For instance, the work of Raymond Aron,33 essentially one of exposition and
synthesis, conveys a sense of great intellectual distinction and can perhaps be
judged best by the canons of humane scholarship, in particular those of first-
rate historical analysis. Such a combination of perspective and precision may
in fact prove to be a greater contribution to the making of foreign policy than
the cautious use of scientilic method. It is not in dispute now that we can attain
to greater understanding of the forces which have shaped and are shaping the
international system: but this is slow work, to be harvested later, whereas states-
men and the public need such insight as will help them in decisions about ac-
tion now.
It may be convenient here to refer briefly to two branches of study which
link international to national politics: area studies and the study of political
unification.