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Main trends of research in the social and human ... - unesdoc - Unesco

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Demography 367<br />

hasten to <strong>in</strong>dicate <strong>the</strong> consequences which any big <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> proportion<br />

<strong>of</strong> male births, as compared with <strong>the</strong> present proportion <strong>of</strong> 51 boys to 49 girls,<br />

could have on <strong>the</strong> development <strong>of</strong> populations <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> various countries. There<br />

is also <strong>the</strong> possibility that <strong>the</strong> percentage <strong>of</strong> males could be at <strong>the</strong> mercy <strong>of</strong><br />

changes <strong>in</strong> fashion.<br />

In <strong>the</strong> past, certa<strong>in</strong> populations, by resort<strong>in</strong>g to <strong>in</strong>fanticide, have already<br />

carried out such a choice <strong>of</strong> sex, <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> difficulties <strong>the</strong>y have encountered <strong>of</strong>fer<br />

an <strong>in</strong>dication <strong>of</strong> what a choice at <strong>the</strong> time <strong>of</strong> conception could entail. Certa<strong>in</strong><br />

tribes <strong>of</strong> Eskimos which saw <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> male <strong>in</strong>fant a potential hunter <strong>and</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

female <strong>in</strong>fant a useless mouth to feed, have resorted to <strong>the</strong> systematic kill<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong><br />

girls at birth. Obviously, this brought about an imbalance between <strong>the</strong> sexes<br />

which no longer enabled <strong>the</strong> population to reproduce itself.<br />

The mastery <strong>of</strong> old age<br />

48. In a still longer term development, one can look forward to <strong>the</strong> discovery by<br />

biology <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> mechanisms <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> age<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> organs. The age<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> each<br />

<strong>in</strong>dividual beg<strong>in</strong>s at <strong>the</strong> precise moment when <strong>the</strong> ovule is fertilized by <strong>the</strong> sper-<br />

matozoa. It presents itself as a k<strong>in</strong>d <strong>of</strong> successive forgetfulness <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> biochemi-<br />

cal cycles built up on <strong>the</strong> basis <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>formation conta<strong>in</strong>ed <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> genetic<br />

heritage. The child who has just been born can already no longer produce cer-<br />

ta<strong>in</strong> substances which he manufactured perfectly well <strong>in</strong> his mo<strong>the</strong>r’s womb.<br />

Thus <strong>the</strong> life <strong>of</strong> an <strong>in</strong>dividual can be viewed as <strong>the</strong> perpetual creation <strong>of</strong> new<br />

mach<strong>in</strong>ery for replac<strong>in</strong>g older mach<strong>in</strong>ery which no longer works <strong>and</strong> which he<br />

no longer knows how to build. Death happens when <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>ventive faculty itself<br />

ceases.<br />

Such are <strong>the</strong> apparent facts. But what is <strong>the</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>ound reason for this non-<br />

remembrance which forces <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>dividual to keep on <strong>in</strong>vent<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> order to<br />

survive? We do not know. Biology has set about try<strong>in</strong>g to solve <strong>the</strong> problem <strong>and</strong><br />

we may expect that a solution to it wil emerge progressively <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> course <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

next century.<br />

From <strong>the</strong> demographic po<strong>in</strong>t <strong>of</strong> view, <strong>the</strong> chief result wil be <strong>the</strong> progressive<br />

disappearance <strong>of</strong> old-age diseases <strong>and</strong>, consequently, <strong>the</strong> postponement <strong>of</strong><br />

endogenous mortality. This will have little effect on population growth, but<br />

considerable effect on its age composition. Whereas hi<strong>the</strong>rto <strong>the</strong> lower<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> death-rate has scarcely had any effect on <strong>the</strong> age composition, <strong>the</strong> disap-<br />

pearance <strong>of</strong> endogenous forms <strong>of</strong> death will result <strong>in</strong> a noticeable <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> percentage <strong>of</strong> old people, with economic <strong>and</strong> <strong>social</strong> consequences <strong>of</strong> which<br />

<strong>the</strong>re is no need to rem<strong>in</strong>d <strong>the</strong> reader.<br />

Infertility overcome<br />

49. Suppose we go even fur<strong>the</strong>r? We are <strong>the</strong>n <strong>in</strong> science fiction. There is a<br />

phenomenon which is connected with <strong>the</strong> age<strong>in</strong>g process: <strong>the</strong> progressive devel-<br />

opment <strong>of</strong> female <strong>in</strong>fertility between puberty <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> menopause. A better<br />

knowledge <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> causes <strong>of</strong> old age wil no doubt enable us to underst<strong>and</strong> better<br />

how it is that woman loses her reproductive powers, <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong>n perhaps to prevent<br />

her from los<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>m. However, we must face <strong>the</strong> fact that here we are deal<strong>in</strong>g

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