Main trends of research in the social and human ... - unesdoc - Unesco

366 Jean Bourgeois-Pichat
bility often plays a very large part. For instance, if it were definitely proved that
by living in a certain way certain situations leading to death could be avoided,
it would be difficult to insist on society’s providing unconditional aid for all
those who voluntarily decided not to live in the prescribed way. The return to a
view of mortality as resulting from an individual decision could help to solve the
conflict already referred to between the various aims of social and economic
development.
44. We have just propounded implicitly the relations between morbidity and
mortality. It is rather suprising that while, in dealing with the question of
birth, the demographer has set out to distinguish between the results of various
factors - marriage situation, infertility, spacing of births, frequency of sexual
intercourse, etc. - he should never have made any serious attempt to study the
process leading from disease to death as a whole. This is something which
demographic research should undertake immediately.
Progress to be expected in biology
45. Hitherto we have discussed the problems confronting the demographer due
to the biological development of the human race as at the time this report was
written (May 1968). We have not described the changes in biology that are
likely to take place in the years immediately ahead. It is always dangerous to try
to imagine the evolution of a science from the sole point of view of another
science. We shall, therefore, restrict ourselves to a few remarks.
Completely effective contraception
46. The most striking progress - which is very likely to produce fairly quick
results - has been achieved in the placing at the disposal of couples of contra-
ceptives that are being continually improved and easier to use. Consequently,
we are going to witness a rapid change-over from social fertility to individual
fertility, as described above. It is therefore going to become more and more
essential to understand the ‘whys’ of conception. The impact on the developing
countries will be considerable, but the essential change will occur in the actual
evolution of the human race which wil then follow a new direction.
The choice of sex
47. A more long-term development which could take place is the parental
ability to choose the child‘s sex at the time of conception. The solution of this
problem is unlikely to present any serious difficulties to biological research4The
importance of being able to make such a choice is obvious for stock-raising
purposes, and there, no doubt, the problem will first of all be solved. Extending
it to the human race wil quickly follow. It is hard to foresee the consequences
of such a discovery. If it were found that certain peoples showed a marked
preference for one of the sexes, the demographic balance in those countries
could be clearly upset, and no government could afford to disinterest itself in
the matter. Recent sociological developments in the study of the process of
decision will here find their natural application. It is for the demographer to
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