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Demography 401
size of family, rural or urban environment, etc. In most cases, therefore, the
calculations are purely a matter for demographers. But this does not solve all
the difficulties. For instance, no satisfactory method has yet been devised for
preparing projections relating to households or families, and still less so if the
number of children has to be taken into account. The Population Division of
the United Nations has undertaken to promote research in this matter. It has
itself conducted research on urbanization.
147. In the case of populations dehed according to the position of individuals
in the labour force, research bears principally on three main categories: old
people, young people attending school or joining the active population, migrants
and their families. A good deal of such research is taking place in most parts
of the world. As regards migrations, a team from the Population Center of
the University of Pennsylvania (USA) is about to publish a textbook on methods
for measuring migratory currents.
148. In all this research centred on economic and social development, the
Population Division of the UN, with assistance from UNESCO, ILO and the re-
gional Economic Commissions, could play a pioneering r61e somewhat similar
to that which WHO has begun to play in the study of fertility and mortality rates.
In which case, its human and financial resources would then have to be increased,
since its present activities are more and more taken up with problems connected
with birth-control in the developing countries.
Some progress has, moreover, been made recently in this direction. The
Population Division of the UN intends to convene, in 1969, a group of experts to
advise on the demographic aspects of social development. A textbook on
methods of establishing a projection of the active population is to appear in
1968. Studies are in progress concerning urban and rural population forecasts.
As regards projections based on occupation, the Population Commission, at its
14th session, in October 1967, stated as follows:
‘The future distribution of the population by educational attainment is ob-
viously correlated to the future occupational pattern, and it wil be useful for
this purpose, therefore, to study the educational and training requirements of
workers belonging to different occupations.’
With regard to projections relating to households and families, the Popula-
tion Cornmission, at the same session, pointed out ‘the need for future analytic
work to provide a sound basis for projections relating to households and fami-
lies, including the investigation of factors influencing formation, growth and
dissolution of families and households.’
The importance of these problems and the urgent need for their solution is
therefore clearly recognized, but the organization which would be prepared to
act as a catalysing agent in the service of all interested parties has not yet been
chosen.
Historical demography
149. In the last few years, aseries of studies possessing a commoncharacteristic-
that of taking their raw material from the past - have contributed towards