Main trends of research in the social and human ... - unesdoc - Unesco

Political science I 89
b. Partial theories. Among partial theories, most public notice has been
given to games theory, as a rational analysis of strategic conflict and com-
promise; games theory has been studied rigorously in the hope of extending its
mathematical power, and it has also been used more loosely,3’J to stimulate
thought about the character of international policy.
But it is perhaps of wider significance that ‘operational research‘ has been
extended from the level of tactics to the level of strategy, bringing with it a very
extensive kit of mathematical tools. It is now commonplace that all the resour-
ces of praxeology or micro-economics31 should be applied to policy-making for
the design, equipment, and use of armed forces; and their use involves the whole
of civil policy, and not only the work of soldiers.
c. Measurement. The possibility of measurement was first indicated by the
Scottish biologist, L. F. Richardson, in his two seminal books, published post-
humously, on The Statistics of Deadly Quarrels and Arms and Insecurity3z. He
used measurement based on ‘aggregative data’ (p. 179 above) collected by govern-
ments for other purposes, and on historical data. It is however by no means
impossible to use the five other types of primary data specified by Deutsch: data
about elites are useful for the study of international organizations and of the
movements of highly qualified manpower between States; public opinion sur-
veys may be designed internationally to measure attitudes to and degree of
involvement in international issues ; data of voting in international assemblies
can be used in the same way as for State assemblies; content analysis of mass
communications (now frequently computer based) measures changes in tone
and emphasis.
Each form of measurement presents technical difficulties of its own, but
certainly there are enough data to encourage active research into the world poli-
ty based on ‘the language of variables’.
d. Experiment. Finally, there is the problem of experiment, at first sight in-
soluble. Nevertheless, it can be attempted in two ways.
One of them is to attempt historical reconstruction, or the analysis of events
actually in progress, within a’ tolerably strict conceptual framework, paying
attention not only to the validity of evidence as establishing a narrative but also
to analysis of the narrative in relation of specified hypotheses. To some extent,
arms races and international crises can be studied on this basis back to the end
of the nineteenth century. Difficulties of strict comparison are greater for ear-
lier periods.
There is also the problem of simulation, at present much used in international
studies. Present practice has two ancestors: on the one hand, war games as
played for many years in war staff colleges, on the other hand computerized
mathematical simulation as used in the design of engineering structures. Hence
various devices : computer simulation, man-machine simulation, r6le-playing by
human participants without mechanical aids; hence also a lively dispute about
the scope of experiment by simulation. There is no doubt that simulation is a
valuable training instrument, and it would probably also be agreed that it is
valuable heuristically in checking over possible outcomes and generating new
possibilities. But it is not argued, as yet, that any important aspect of interna-