Main trends of research in the social and human ... - unesdoc - Unesco

564 Raymond Boudon
series of models analysing the diverse formulations of a single basic situation.
In contrast, economic cycle theory should rather be considered as an assemblage
of concurrent models or hypotheses on the signification of the cycles. This state
of affairs is characteristic of the extensively mathematized sciences like eco-
nomics.
In the less developed sciences such as social psychology or sociology, theoret-
ical mathematical models occur as unrelated attempts: here Cohen’s model for
Ash’s experiment; there applications of graph theory to experiments in con-
nexion with the theory of cognitive disonance; here again a few models treating
of the functioning of groups. If we look at the situation of linguistics, it is
apparent that this discipline stands apart, having begotten completely formalized
theories like the theory of grammars. It must, however, be noted that in reality
they are mathematical rather than linguistic theories.
It may be wondered why such differences can be observed between the disci-
plines. Unquestionably institutional considerations must be borne in mind :
for example, it is surely not unimportant that until recently economists in all
countries were given more mathematical-statistical training than sociologists.
On the other hand we must not pretend that the degree or openness to mathema-
ticization does not vary from discipline to discipline: thus the economist is
dealing more frequently with naturally quantified variables (price, income,
investments) than the sociologist. In absolute terms, this state of affairs is not
a disadvantage but it largely accounts for economic theory having produced
attempts at formalization earlier on, for the classical mathematics presupposed
variables of a quantitative type. As a result economists were able to produce
formal analyses of certain economic problems on the basis of the existing
mathematics. On the other hand, in sociology, the nature of the problems, and
above all, of the variables, often involves non-classical mathematics.
From these two considerations it follows that any forecasting in this realm is
difficult. Undoubtedly in the years to come we shall see an increasing formaliza-
tion, for example, of sociological and psychological theories. But it is difficult
to foresee in what directions these formal theories will develop.
B. Descriptive models
We now turn to a class of models which is quite distinct from the previous one.
Here the aim is no longer to explain, but to classify, order or measure. Of course,
classification, ordering and measurement are not ends in themselves, and the
ultimate aim is still explanation; when we classify plants into species, or ar-
chaeological remains by their age, we are not doing it for the sake of classifying,
but to extract information which will give us a better understanding of the
phenomena into which we are inquiring. The fact still remains, however, that
the processes of classification, ordering or measurement are operations sui
generis, whose logic must likewise be so regarded. We used the term descriptive
models for those which set out to effect the classification, sub-division or
measurement of a ‘population’ of any description.
As was mentioned in a previous section, recourse to descriptive models has