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Main trends of research in the social and human ... - unesdoc - Unesco

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660 Ste<strong>in</strong> Rokkan<br />

Two technical developments proved crucial <strong>in</strong> accelerat<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>se movements<br />

toward greater boldness <strong>in</strong> tackl<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> problems <strong>of</strong> cross-national comparison :<br />

first, <strong>the</strong> extraord<strong>in</strong>ary improvements <strong>in</strong> mach<strong>in</strong>ery for <strong>the</strong> h<strong>and</strong>l<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> huge<br />

data masses <strong>and</strong>, secondly, <strong>the</strong> organization <strong>in</strong> more <strong>and</strong> more countries <strong>of</strong><br />

sample survey organizations ga<strong>the</strong>r<strong>in</strong>g data on broader ranges <strong>of</strong> variables than<br />

were normally covered <strong>in</strong> <strong>of</strong>ficial statistical bookkeep<strong>in</strong>g operations.<br />

The development <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> electronic computer has brought about a revolution<br />

<strong>in</strong> comparative <strong>research</strong>. Tasks <strong>of</strong> calculation so far judged beyond <strong>the</strong> reach<br />

<strong>of</strong> even <strong>the</strong> largest <strong>research</strong> <strong>in</strong>stitute can now be carried out quickly <strong>and</strong> at<br />

moderate cost at a number <strong>of</strong> academic computer centres. The very existence<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se new mach<strong>in</strong>es has prompted a number <strong>of</strong> <strong>research</strong> organizations to<br />

build up extensive data archives on punch-cards or on tape, <strong>and</strong> several <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong>se now cover data from large numbers <strong>of</strong> countries throughout <strong>the</strong> world.<br />

The need for such data archives has proved most urgent <strong>in</strong> comparative studies<br />

<strong>of</strong> economic growth, <strong>and</strong> an impressive number <strong>of</strong> attempts have been made <strong>in</strong><br />

recent years to apply complex techniques <strong>of</strong> computation to cross-national data<br />

for a variety <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>dicators <strong>of</strong> resources, production, <strong>in</strong>come, distribution, etc.36<br />

The case for similar data archives has also been effectively demonstrated <strong>in</strong> a<br />

study <strong>of</strong> world urbanization through <strong>the</strong> work <strong>of</strong> K<strong>in</strong>gsley Davis <strong>and</strong> his group<br />

at <strong>the</strong> University <strong>of</strong> California at Berkeley,37 <strong>and</strong> more recently also <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> study<br />

<strong>of</strong> political modernization by Karl Deutsch <strong>and</strong> his associates at Yale <strong>and</strong> later<br />

at Har~ard.3~<br />

The sociologists <strong>and</strong> political scientists develop<strong>in</strong>g such plans have <strong>of</strong> neces-<br />

sity been concerned with broader ranges <strong>of</strong> cross-national variables than <strong>the</strong><br />

demographers <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> economists : <strong>the</strong>y have not only assembled data from<br />

censuses, national accounts, trade statistics, <strong>and</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r governmental book-<br />

keep<strong>in</strong>g operations, but have also tried to accumulate <strong>the</strong> best available es-<br />

timates <strong>of</strong> variations <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> spread <strong>of</strong> education <strong>and</strong> culture, <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> sway <strong>of</strong><br />

religious, ideological <strong>and</strong> political movements, <strong>and</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> exposure <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> popu-<br />

lation to <strong>the</strong> newer media <strong>of</strong> communication. UNESCO <strong>and</strong> such regional organi-<br />

zations as <strong>the</strong> OECD are do<strong>in</strong>g magnificent work on <strong>the</strong> evaluation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> com-<br />

parative statistics <strong>of</strong> education, <strong>and</strong> <strong>in</strong> this field <strong>the</strong> sociologists <strong>and</strong> political<br />

scientists attempt<strong>in</strong>g to build up data programmes can simply take over <strong>the</strong><br />

country-by-country estimates produced by <strong>the</strong>se organizations. The situation is<br />

less encourag<strong>in</strong>g for mass media statistics: here UNESCO has been mak<strong>in</strong>g valiant<br />

efforts to accumulate <strong>in</strong>formation, but has had very little opportunity to carry<br />

out detailed evaluations <strong>and</strong> analyses. On cultural, religious, <strong>and</strong> political<br />

variables <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>ternational organizations can supply little or noth<strong>in</strong>g: here <strong>the</strong><br />

<strong>social</strong> scientist is ra<strong>the</strong>r left to his own devices <strong>and</strong> must glean such data as<br />

seem worthy <strong>of</strong> comparison from whatever national sources he can h d. Data<br />

on religious memberships, electoral turnout, <strong>and</strong> party strength can be assem-<br />

bled from <strong>of</strong>ficial counts for a sizeable number <strong>of</strong> countries, but to evaluate <strong>and</strong><br />

<strong>in</strong>terpret such data <strong>in</strong> any comparative analysis <strong>the</strong> <strong>social</strong> scientists will require<br />

detailed knowledge <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> work<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> each national system, <strong>and</strong> here <strong>the</strong> litera-<br />

ture is <strong>of</strong>ten deficient.39 Data on levels <strong>of</strong> participation, whe<strong>the</strong>r cultural, reli-<br />

gious or political, can only rarely be assembled from regular statistical sources.

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