Piercing the Fog - Air Force Historical Studies Office

Piercing the Fog
ARGUMENT. The list consisted of twelve different target complexes for heavy
bombers flying from England. Of these, ten were component or airframe
assembly plants; one was a ball-bearing complex, and the last, a major rubber
production complex.'@ Before leaving the Mediterranean, McDonald had
identified ten priority targets based on intelligence and distance from air bases
in Italy. Nine of the ten were aircraft or ball-bearing facilities; the tenth was the
massive oil refining complex at Ploesti."'
Execution of an operation of the magnitude that airmen now contemplated
required a reasonable period of good weather both over the targets and at the
operating bases. Persistently bad weather prevailed over Europe from mid-
October 1943 until mid-February 1944. While this delayed ARGUMENT, it
provided time for the arrival of new bomber groups and the introduction of the
long-range P-51s, capable of escorting the B-17s and B-24s deep into
Germany and back.
When the weather broke in the third week of February, American bomber
forces possessed what they had previously lacked: weapons in sufficient number
to strike targets that needed to be attacked. On February 20, they began to
exercise their capability. On five of the next six days, Eighth Air Force heavy
bombers, in formations of up to 600 aircraft with hundreds of escort fighters, hit
all 12 of the major target complexes identified the previous fall, as well as 2 of
the 10 McDonald had highlighted. Operating under the same directives from
Spaatz, Fifteenth Air Force struck the Messerschmitt complexes at Regensburg
and Wiener Neustadt and the aircraft component and ball-bearing plants at
Steyr, all on McDonald's list. In addition, RAF bombers conducted major night
attacks against five cities close to several of these complexes.*"' From the
standpoint of intelligence, the February period that came to be called Big Week
represented a crucial point. American strategic air forces could now hit the
targets identified as critical to victory in the air war and thus to Allied victory
in Europe. In another, although not wholly correct sense, it marked a new
beginning, for the assessed impact of these attacks on the GAF and German
aircraft production would condition to a large extent what Eighth and Fifteenth
Air Forces did in the future.
The first USSTAF intelligence assessment of Operation ARGUMENT was
completed on February 26, 1944. "The fighting value of these units [Lufiufle
fighter units in western Europe and Germany] has been substantially reduced
. . ." with serviceability down to 50 percent."' This emphasis on fighting value
rather than simple numerical strength, although difficult to define, would
become an increasingly important measure in how the American air command-
*Senior commanders had been prepared to take losses of as many as 200
bombers in a single mission, but losses for the week totaled 226 bombers and 28
fighters, with approximately 2,600 crew members killed, seriously wounded, or
missing in action.
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