Piercing the Fog - Air Force Historical Studies Office

Piercing the Fog
Eglin Army Air Field, Florida; while there, he initiated another effort to test
incendiary weapons for use on Japan. These latter evaluations continued into the
summer of 1944, using as targets several small, wooden villages constructed for
the purpose. At Eglin, the testing showed promise as a means of predicting the
damage that combustible buildings would sustain when hit by certain mixtures
of high-explosive and incendiary bombs. Again, as in Utah the previous year,
the six-pound bomb was most effective at starting a conflagration that existing
firefighting equipment could not control. As demonstrated at Dugway and
Eglin, the potential for incendiary attacks matched the prospects in the COA’s
examination of the topic, but the final decision on the matter came about for
reasons farmore complex than just weather and winds, or the nature of Japanese
targets .y3
Although the primary B-29 offensive had gotten underway from the
Marianas in November 1944, the results had not met expectations. The number
of sorties was less than desired, while target damage seemed to be less than
necessary to reduce Japan’s continued resistance. High winds, poor weather, the
need for more crew training, and disappointing accuracy from radar bomb-
ing-all contributed to the poor showing. In Washington, Arnold experienced
increasing pressure to make the B-29s live up to his claims. Between September
1942, when the new aircraft first flew, and the start of operations in China in
1944, the B-29 had shown continued development problems. The Wright
R-3350 engine was prone to catch fire, and many types of equipment subassem-
blies could not be delivered to meet assembly-line demands. Tools and
necessary ground equipment for the huge airplane were in short supply, and the
AAF lacked the experience needed to absorb the aircraft, with its attendant
development difficulties, and to create operational bomber groups. The B-29s
failed to meet Arnold’s expectations when flying from Chinese bases, and he
replaced the first commander there with LeMay, who showed decided promise
as a tough organizer and leader. Yet congressional critics and doubtful senior
military officers were prepared to compare the high and growing costs of the
B-29 program to its continued troubles. Arnold, as the airplane’s main
proponent, was their chief target.’4 All of these factors plus the generally
accepted intelligence analysis that postulated Japanese manufacturing
dependence on innumerable small workshops in urban areas surrounding the
factories combined over time to move the American strategic air campaign
away from precision daylight bombing.
There appears to have been no operations order issued by Twentieth Air
Force headquarters in Washington to start the urban bombing campaign directed
at destroying many of Japan’s major cities. There are, however, substantial
records that trace the process of the decision and illustrate the role of intelli-
gence in that process. LeMay had become familiar with the potential repre-
sented by incendiary bombs while in Europe, and in December 1944 his B-29s
in China teamed up with Chennault’s Fourteenth Air Force to destroy with
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