Piercing the Fog - Air Force Historical Studies Office

Piercing the Fog
avoid the catastrophic losses of soldiers that had occurred in World War I.’ The
doctrine had important implications for intelligence.
Only combat could test the assumptions on which the first premise rested.
The second assumption demanded excellent intelligence on potential enemy
economies, and that intelligence did not exist. As Captain White accurately
bemoaned in 1938, the general lack of intelligence precluded an air campaign
effective in causing economic dislocation.* Unfortunately, devotees of strategic
bombing at the ACTS never seemed to have recognized the role of intelligence
in determining the weak links in an enemy’s economic structure. Such
economic analysis as did occur largely rested on studies performed on similar
American industries. While such studies were useful, they carried with them the
danger that conditions peculiar to America were not necessarily mirrored in
Germany or Japan.
In fairness to the Americans who developed the concept of precision
strategic bombardment, precious little information existed on which any
analysis could establish a coherent picture of potential opponents. What seems
astonishing today in a time of bountiful information was the general lack of
intelligence in the United States as World War I1 broke out. While the American
military had some general understanding of the German military and economic
situations, ground and maritime intelligence needs were scantily supported.
Virtually no resources were available for the gathering of air requirements.
The crucial turn came only with the creation of the Air Corps Intelligence
Board. The interest of both President Roosevelt and the new Army Chief of
Staff, General Marshall, also helped the creation of an air intelligence
capability. But the real problem, as with all the services from 1939 through
1942, lay in building an effective intelligence organization from thin air. Here
the American penchant for flexibility and unorthodox solutions held particular
value.’ By bringing civilian expertise, such as engineers, professors, lawyers,
and economists, into intelligence organizations that grew exponentially, the
capabilities of AAF intelligence generally matched the demands that war placed
on them. One has only to consider the success of the American ULTRA
organization, with talent that included some of the greatest legal minds in the
United States, to understand what the skillful addition of civilians to intelli-
gence was able to accomplish. On the negative side, while civilian talent may
have made a long-term favorable contribution, it could not address the
immediate problems of intelligence shortcomings in the war’s early years. The
United States paid dearly for such weaknesses in the first six months of its
participation in the conflict.
With the outbreak of war in Europe in September 1939, the pace of
America’s rearmament quickened, but the weaknesses of the American military
presented extraordinary problems. The entire structure, operational as well as
support, had to be built from scratch. With doctrinal conceptions for air power
largely in place, considerable gaps in understanding continued. Particularly
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