I__. - International Military Testing Association

The scenario must be short, concise and realistic. A poorly written
credible scenario is better than a well written unbelievable one. According to
experts in scenario generation, a scenario shouid provide the minimum amount of
information to describe the situation (deLeon, 19731. People can only absorb a
finite amount of data, and fine detail may distract the reader from the overal 1
intent of the scenario. Only critical scenario variables had to be selected.
The scenario descriptions are intended ior use with task surveys; hence, they
must ‘paint’ a conflict situation with application to all Air Force Specialties
(AFSsl .
Consideration of the user group is also important. The CTT scenario
generator is intended for use by people inexperienced with creating a scenario.
Additionally, the primary user group, USAFOMC, is relatively small.
To ensure necessary scenario generation guidelines are followed, and ..
because of user inexperience, the scenario generator should be automated. The
optimal design, with users in mind, would be a small program operable on DOS
compatible microcomputers. The inclusion of an on-line help which would provide
definitions to all conting;ncy variables was also deemed important.
APPROACH
Initial Research Existing scenario generators were investigated prior to
any development. Typically, scenario generators are used in war games. They
mainly deal with overall battle management as opposed to individuals,
Therefore, the standard scenario generator used for combat tactics was of little
to no use for CTT.
A preliminary scenario design system was being developed by the U.S. Army
for training intelligence gathering skills to intelligence officers. The Low
Intensity Conflict Study Group of the U.S. Army Intelligence Center and School
at Fort Huachuca, AZ developed a non automated scenario generator for creating
low-intensity conflict (LIC) scenarios (Smiley, 19891. Since the material
suited the needs of the CTT project, permission was obtained to use the
variables in the CTT scenario generator.
The Army’s material was appropriate for use in a LIC scenario. Future
warfare is forcasted to be primarily in the LIC arena, but may also include
‘normal ’ or high-intensity conflicts and mid-intensity conflicts such as
Vietnam. The CTT scenario generator enhanced the Fort Huachuca version to
include variables pertinent to all levels of combat. Also, certain definitions
and variables were modified to apply directly to the Air Force and its mission.
The different levels of conflict intensity provided structure for further
Scenario generator development. Definitions of high, mid, and low-intensity
conflicts were extracted from Army FM 100-20, and are listed in Table 1.
Numerous other sources also provided input into the scenario generator
design. Work done by AFHRL Logistics and Human Factors Division (LR) , called
the Combat Maintenance Capability, provided information on collecting
contingency skills information (Dunigan et al, 19851. They had developed a
methodology to determine wartime maintenance tasks. Maintenance specialists
we,re asked to indicate work unit codes (WUCl used to indicate repairs performed
on aircraft. The scenario was set at Hahn AB, Germany during a Warsaw Pact
offensive. Their study provided information helpful to contingency scenario
design and task data collection. The Combat Maintenance Capability study
evaluated several computer models, the most notable being the Logistics
Composite Model (LCOMl, the Theater Simulation of Airbase Resources (TSAR), and
the Theater Simulation of Airbase Resources inputs using AIDA (TSARINA).
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