I__. - International Military Testing Association

clashes, etc.). It may be that the 61% of officers and 49% of enlisted who said yes to an increased chance of
war with the Soviet Union were in fact just responding to this item as an increased chance of war, perhaps
civil and not with the U.S.
Although some soldiers said recent world events would probably affect what they do in the Army,
the most likely impacts were seen in force size and promotion potential. As a result of recent world events
48% said it was likely that demands on their time would increase. These soldiers could worry that mission
statements will not be scaled back as resources and structure are cut, or that work details may replace
training time for troops as many experienced during the draw-down of the early 1970’s. Further, two-thirds of
soldiers (79% of commissioned officers, 69% of warrant officers, and 65% of enlisted) said it is likely that
promotion oppomolities will decrease as a result of receilt world events. AS one officer commented, “How
ironic that the very soldiers who brought about this peace dividend are the ones who have to suffer.”
Reductions in force requirements have decreased soldiers’ confidence in their ability to be promoted
and to have the opportunity to complete at least 20 years of Army service. Only 46% of commissioned
officers, 59% of warrant officers, and 52% of enlisted were confident that as the Army becomes smaller they
would be able to stay in the Army and be promoted on or ahead of schedule.
Concerning the size of the future Army, soldiers were asked to predict the likelihood of several
percentage reductions. Voting for as many size-cuts as they felt were likely. Three-fourths of soldiers
believe today’s Army will be cut by up to 10%; over one-half believe the cuts will be about 20%; and nearly
one-third believe the cuts will be at least 30%. Commissioned officers voted the reduction as likely to bc
considerably larger than did the enIisted and the warrant officers.
For the majority of soldiers, interest in
serving in the Army is not strongly influenced by
the size of force reductions that may be imposed.
However, of the 40% of officers whose interest in
serving is influenced by the size of the force, threefourths
are less interested in serving in a pareddown
Army and only one-fourth are more
interested (Figure 1). This may well be related to
fears about quality and career opportunities. Less
than half of officer, warant and enlisted soldiers are
conjidettt that the best officers, NCOs, and junior
(skill level 1) enlisted will stay as the Army becomes
smaller.
While the question was not asked directly,
it is possible that opportunities to exercise
leadership may also be seen as decreasing in a
smaller Army, especially by those less interested in
serving in a smaller Army. It may be important to
point out to those interested in developing their
leadership skills that requirements for creative,
effective leadership are likely to increase during a
transition; and that opportunities to learn these
difficult leadership skills will remain high even in a
smaller Army. It is also likely that these skills will
be in much greater demand in a civilian sector
facing its own pressures for streamlining and
efficiency.
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