COMMERZBANK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT

To our Shareholders Interim Management Report Interim Financial Statements
231 Business and economy
232 Earnings performance, assets and financial position
237 Forecast
240 Report on post-balance sheet date events
241 Risk Report
Commerzbank has attracted widespread investor interest
in maturities over one year and has successfully carried out
both secured and unsecured issues with maturities of up to
ten years.
In spite of the ongoing turbulence on the financial markets,
we do not expect any adverse impact on our own
liquidity position – not least because of our stable deposit
business and our focus on the bank’s core business areas.
We have access to sufficient short-term liquidity in the
interbank market and have proven our funding capability
through various capital market issues in both the secured
and unsecured segments. Taking advantage of assistance
from the Financial Market Stabilization Fund (SoFFin) has
also strengthened the Bank’s liquidity position. The funds
which SoFFin has provided to Commerzbank – a silent participation
of €16.4bn and an increase in share capital of
around €1.8bn – are available to the bank for an unlimited
period. The same applies to the silent participation of
€750m provided by Allianz as part of the Dresdner Bank
transaction.
Our detailed liquidity management is based on an internal
risk-management model, based on assumptions that are
constantly monitored and regularly adjusted to prevailing
market conditions. Even under stringent stress assumptions
the liquidity ratios of our internal model demonstrate a
sound liquidity position across all maturities.
Key liquidity under the standardized approach of the
Liquidity Regulation – known until the end of 2007 as Principle
II – was at a high level in the first half of 2009, as it was
throughout 2008. At the end of June, the actual value was
significantly above the average value in the first quarter at
1.30, reflecting Commerzbank’s conservative liquidity management
and the constant inflow of medium-term funds.
General statement on the outlook for the Group
Despite the fact that the financial markets began to improve
in the second quarter, we are still navigating very choppy
waters. It is still impossible to make a precise forecast
regarding our results for the 2009 financial year. However,
the year will be impacted in particular by the situation on
the financial markets, which remains unstable, and the integration
of Dresdner Bank. The costs for the integration are
likely to amount to around €2bn in 2009. Of this, some
€1.7bn will be allocated to restructuring and the rest to current
implementation expenses. In the course of the second
half of the year, the ratings of our assets will likely be
changed, which could also lead to renewed increase of our
risk-weighted assets. The provision for possible loan losses
in 2009 should be at the level of the combined figures for
Commerzbank and Dresdner Bank for 2008 despite large
structural shifts. In the most probable scenario, the effect of
the financial crisis on net income through available-for-sale
assets and holdings in the trading book should be lower
than the combined values for 2008. There may also be
changes to goodwill in the asset-based finance area in
connection with the restructuring of segments in the third
quarter. Overall we continue to expect a negative result for
the 2009 financial year.
Under normal market conditions, repayments for the
SoFFin silent partnership can be made starting 2012; if the
market develops positively, the repayments may begin in
2011. We have already successfully introduced the first
steps of our Roadmap 2012. We still expect to achieve our
medium-term goal of a 12 % post-tax return on equity in
2012.
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