The Nimrod Review - Official Documents

10B.75
10B.76
“Change
17 Mar 2005
Approving Officer
[Witness C]
Chapter 10B – Nimrod Safety Case: The Facts (Third Phase)
Status
Current: Managed
Previous: Managed
Initial Probability
Remote
Remote
Post Probability
Improbable
Remote
Rationale: IPT statement issued 16-3-2005 by NIM(ES)Safety:
A further review of past incidences indicates no major occurrences of these hazards.”
Thus, by the end of March 2005, all 105 hazards identified in the Phase 1 ZHA had been ‘sentenced’ down
to a probability of “Improbable” (10-6 ), i.e. Class C ‘tolerable’, or less and these classifications entered into
CASSANDRA.
In this way, therefore, the final sentencing of hazards under the NSC was completed and an apparent
‘baseline’ established which assumed that the Nimrod was, indeed, safe to operate as required by BP1201.
This proved, tragically, to be false.
257