Marketing Marketing Heinz K. Stahl

Cross-Impact-Analyse: Beispiel II
Szenario-Technik: Prinzip
Heinz K. Stahl 81
� The word "scenario" was made popular by Hermann Kahn ("The
Year 2000").
� A scenario is the description of a future situation arrived at by
alternative assumptions on key variables.
�� Note the contrast to trend extrapolation: In Scenario Technique
there is no single "future" but several possible, plausible and
consistent "constructions" of the future.
� The main purposes of this technique are
� to draw management's attention to causal processes,
possible ibl discontinuities di ti iti and d particular ti l ddecision i i points i t
� to achieve a high degree of vigilance throughout the
organisation;
� and to foster a learning "into" the future
Heinz K. Stahl 82
2.1
2.1