University of Vaasa - Vaasan yliopisto

Conclusion
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The different sustainability criteria selected have been articulated into a qualitative
model. This model defines links between criteria, studied separately, and
characterises these relations into positive or negative correlations, and indeterminate
relations.
From this modelling, it appears that many interactions between bioenergy
externalities are not straightforward. Many of them are time or space-dependent.
Agricultural practices vary a lot from one region to another, indirect effects are far
from being understood and assessed correctly, long-term effects of climate change
are still unknown, etc.
Even if our qualitative model enhances the understanding of relations between
bioenergy externalities or sustainability criteria, its limits cannot be ignored.
Constant refinement and improvement of this model, especially concerning the
indeterminate relations, are necessary. Lots of research efforts are still ongoing on
many of these parameters (climate change, biodiversity, indirect effects, etc.) and
must be considered when enhancing the model.
Any energy policy or managerial decision based on the results of this qualitative
model should consider these limits. Decisions must be reviewed according to the
increasing understanding of their impacts and to the qualitative model improvement.
Indirect and long-term impacts assessment is difficult whatever the topic considered.
The respect of the precautionary principle appears as a wise way to deal with these
sources of uncertainty.
On the basis of the final consolidated qualitative model, we intend to build a
quantitative model. It should allow, on the one hand, the monetization of measurable
sustainability criteria and their introduction in a policy support tool, and, on the other
hand, the qualitative assessment of other sustainability criteria and their potential
introduction in a certification scheme.