World Energy Outlook 2007

in these regions is relatively inefficient and because more new capacity will be
added over the projection period, creating an opportunity for deploying the
most efficient technologies commercially available. Per-capita energy use
worldwide in the Alternative Policy Scenario rises to about 1.9 toe around
2020 and then levels off; in the Reference Scenario, it keeps rising through to
2030.
Oil
Global oil savings reach 14 mb/d, or about 12% of total oil demand in
2030. Demand grows by 0.8% per year between 2005 and 2030 – 0.5
percentage points less than in the Reference Scenario. Oil’s share of total
primary energy demand falls from 35% now to 31% in 2030 in the
Alternative Policy Scenario, compared with 32% in the Reference Scenario.
By 2015, oil savings reach 4.3 mb/d, or more than 4%. Nearly two-thirds of
the savings come from the transport sector, thanks to increased fuel
efficiency in new conventional vehicles and the faster introduction of
alternative fuels and vehicles (Figure 1.16). Most of the rest comes from
more efficient oil use in industry and in residential and commercial
buildings. Oil savings are most pronounced for developing countries, at
Figure 1.16: Oil Demand and Savings by Sector in the Alternative Policy
Scenario
6 000
5 000
4 000
Mtoe
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
2006 2015 2030
Alternative Policy Scenario
Savings in industry and
non-energy use
Savings in other sectors
Savings in transport
Savings in residential, services
and agriculture
100 World Energy Outlook 2007 - GLOBAL ENERGY PROSPECTS: IMPACT OF DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA & INDIA