World Energy Outlook 2007

Table 13.3: Primary Energy Demand in China’s Coastal Region
in the Reference Scenario (Mtoe)
2000 2005 2015 2030 2005- 2005-
2015* 2030*
Coal 356 633 997 1 285 4.7% 2.9%
Oil 123 214 328 490 4.4% 3.4%
Gas 4 13 55 131 15.1% 9.6%
Nuclear 4 14 32 67 8.8% 6.5%
Hydro 4 6 6 8 1.4% 1.3%
Biomass 74 74 58 62 –2.4% –0.7%
Other renewables 0 0.1 3 7 35.9% 17.8%
Total 566 954 1 479 2 050 4.5% 3.1%
* Average annual rate of growth.
Primary demand for natural gas in the coastal region increases at an annual
rate of 9.6% to 2030. Growth stems mainly from power generation and the
residential and services sectors. The share of gas in total primary energy
demand increases more than four-fold, from 1.4% in 2005 to 6.4% in 2030.
Physical constraints on the availability of gas are expected to discourage more
rapid growth in the use of gas in final sectors.
Nuclear power generating capacity continues to be located solely on the coast
over the Outlook period. The share of nuclear power in the primary energy
mix of the coastal region more than doubles, from 1.5% in 2005 to 3.2% by
2030. Support for nuclear power is heightened by the relative scarcity of nonfossil
energy resources in the coastal provinces. The 11 th Five-Year Plan calls
for raising installed capacity to 40 GW.
The share of biomass in the coastal region’s total primary energy demand
drops from 7.8% to 3% by 2030, as the trend continues towards greater use
by households of modern forms of energy and alternative fuels. The share
remains much lower than in the rest of China, because the region is more
urbanised. The share of other renewables increases steeply and reaches 0.4%
of primary energy demand in 2030. Hydropower remains a marginal source
of energy, because of a lack of further potential on the coast.
The 11 th Five-Year Plan sets energy intensity reduction targets for each
province (Figure 13.3). The target percentage reduction in energy intensity by
2010 compared to 2005 levels is 19.6% for the coastal region and 20% for
China as a whole. The challenges to meeting the targets vary widely between
the provinces, even within the coastal region. For example, Beijing may
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Chapter 13 – Focus on the Coastal Region 409