World Energy Outlook 2007

in cities is assumed to grow steadily from 40% to 60% over the projection
period, adding around 14 million new urban residents each year. We project
residential floor area per capita to rise to 38 m 2 for urban residents and 41 m 2
for rural residents as living standards increase (Figure 9.9). Average household
size, which dropped from 4.5 people in 1985 to 3.5 in 2005, is projected to
continue to diminish, to 3 in 2030. The trend towards smaller households is
expected to be fastest in the coastal urban area, where two- to three-person
households are emerging rapidly.
Figure 9.9: Residential Floor Area per Capita and Household Size in China
45
6
square metres per capita
40
5
35
30
4
25
3
20
15
2
10
1
5
0
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
number of persons per household
9
Urban
Urban (right axis)
Rural
Rural (right axis)
Building codes and standards were established in 1986 and revised in 1995.
They divide the country into several zones, according to climate. The standards
were initially applied for the northern cold-winter heating zone and were
extended to hot-summer cold-winter zones in central China in 2001 and to
hot-summer warm-winter zones in southern China in 2003. A bill setting
national standards for residential buildings, which aims to harmonise the three
building standards, is under consideration. Energy efficiency in buildings is still
low and varied in China: compliance rates with building standards in new
buildings are around 60% in the northern region, 20% in the central region
and 8% in the southern region.
Chapter 9 - Reference Scenario Demand Projections 307