World Energy Outlook 2007

Gas Imports
China imported gas – as liquefied natural gas (LNG) – for the first time in
2006. 8 In the Reference Scenario, natural gas imports in China are projected
to increase sharply, to 12 bcm in 2010, 28 bcm in 2015 and 128 bcm in 2030
(Figure 10.8). Gas will come in the form of LNG and via pipeline from
neighbouring countries. The prospects for imports are, nonetheless, highly
uncertain, as they depend critically on the balance of production and demand,
which in turn is very sensitive to the relative prices of coal and gas.
250
Figure 10.8: China’s Gas Balance in the Reference Scenario (bcm)
200
150
bcm
100
50
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Historical production
Projected production
Projected imports
A dozen LNG projects are currently under construction or planned
(Table 10.6). An expansion of the existing Shenzhen terminal is due to be
completed by 2008. New terminals at Putian and Yangshan are also under
construction. Most of the gas will be used in the residential sector. Imports
from Russia and Kazakhstan by pipeline are also under discussion. CNPC has
signed a memorandum of understanding with Exxon and Rosneft to import 8
bcm per year from the Sakhalin-1 project from 2011, but pipeline routing
issues have not been finalised and this project is included in the projections
only from 2016. In 2006, Gazprom and CNPC signed a protocol providing
for the importation of gas through two new pipelines - one would connect
western Siberia to China’s Xinjiang region, where the internal West-East gas
pipeline starts, and the other would run from eastern Siberia to north-eastern
China. The total volumes of gas mentioned in the protocol amount to 68 bcm
per year and the proposed first delivery date is 2011. However, we do not
include those two pipelines in the Reference Scenario as they are not certain to
8. Imports from Australia into the Shenzhen terminal amounted to 0.9 bcm in 2006.
332 World Energy Outlook 2007 - CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS