World Energy Outlook 2007

undertaken because of its economic advantages and advantages in reducing
gaseous emissions. Hydropower is projected to increase from 397 TWh in 2005
to 1 005 TWh in 2030, but its share in total generation will fall from 16% to
12%. The government’s 300 GW target is met by 2030 in the Reference
Scenario.
The huge Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River in Hubei province, when
fully completed in 2009, will have a total installed capacity of 18.2 GW, by far
the largest hydro generating facility in the world. There are 14.7 GW currently
in operation. Construction has recently started on two other very large
hydropower plants: the Xiluodu project, located along the Jinsha River in
south-western China, which, when completed in 2015, will have a total
capacity of 12.6 GW; and the Xiangjiaba project, in Sichuan province, which
is projected to be completed also in 2015, with a capacity of 6 GW. Small-scale
hydropower plants are widely used. About one-third of China’s counties rely on
small-scale hydropower as their main power generation source, with a total
installed capacity of 50 GW.
Wind power capacity was 1.3 GW in 2005 and doubled in 2006. By the end
of that year, there were 91 wind farms in operation in 16 provinces, equipped
with 3 311 wind turbines. Besides large wind farms, over 200 000 stand-alone
small-scale wind turbines (with an installed capacity of 40 MW) provide
electricity to households in remote areas. With its large land mass and long
coastline, China has relatively abundant wind resources. Estimates by the
China Meteorology Research Institute, based on measurements done at ten
metres above ground, indicate a potential of 253 GW for onshore wind power.
The institute estimates offshore wind resources to represent an exploitable
potential of about 750 GW.
The government’s target for large-scale wind turbines is 5 GW in 2010 and
30 GW in 2020. In the Reference Scenario, wind power capacity is projected
to reach 49 GW in 2030 and wind power to account for 1.6% of China’s
electricity supply. Wind power development will need to be accompanied by
investment in grid expansion and transmission upgrades.
The domestic manufacturing industry – including joint-ventures – accounted
for 45% of the wind-turbine market in 2006. At present, over twenty
manufacturers are established in China. By comparison with what is available
internationally, there are still gaps in Chinese design and manufacturing
capacity for large wind turbines.
Competition between foreign and local manufacturers and suppliers of wind
turbines and related components may put downward pressure on wind turbine
prices or may force some manufacturers to cut back on quality in order to
remain in business. Domestic turbine manufacturers are being supported by a
government requirement that more than half of the equipment in the first
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Chapter 10 - Reference Scenario Supply Projections 355