World Energy Outlook 2007

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Chapter 17: Reference Scenario Supply Projections Barlow Jonker (2006), Thermal Coal Market 2006 - Supply and Demand to 2020, Barlow Jonker, Sydney. Beck, R. A., Y. Price, S. Friedmann, J. Wilder, L. Neher, (2007), Regional Assessment of CO 2 Sources and Sinks for the India Subcontinent, AAPG Annual Meeting, 1-4 April, Long Beach. BGR (2007), Reserves, Resources and Availability of Energy Resources – Annual Report 2005, Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, Hanover, available at: www.bgr.bund.de. Cedigaz (2007), 2006 Natural Gas Year in Review, Cedigaz, Rueil-Malmaison. Central Electricity Authority (2007), All India Electricity Statistics 2006, CEA, New Delhi. — (2006), Review of Performance of Thermal Power Stations 2005/06, CEA, New Delhi. — (2005), Report on Tapping of Surplus Power from Captive Power Plants, CEA, New Delhi. Coal India (2007), Domestic Price Fixation, Coal India Ltd, Kolkata. Coal Industry Advisory Board (CIAB) (2002) Coal in the energy supply of India, IEA Coal Industry Advisory Board, OECD/IEA, Paris. CRISIL/ICRA (2006), State Power Sector Performance Ratings: Final Report to the Ministry of Power. Available at: www.powermin.nic.in. Desai, V. (2004), Obstacles to Private Power Investments in India, ADB Institute Discussion Paper No 20. Available at: www.adbi.org Friedmann, S.J. (2006), The scientific case for large CO 2 storage projects worlwide: Where they should go, what they should look like, and how much they should cost, GHGT8 Conference, 19-23 June, Trondheim. Geological Survey of India (2007), Coal Resources of India 2007, Geological Survey of India, Kolkata. Government of India (2002), Tenth Five Year Plan 2002-07, Government of India, Delhi. IndiaCore (2006), Overview of Coal Sector in India 2005, IndiaCore, New Delhi. IEA (2008, forthcoming), Global Renewable Energy Markets and Policies – Past Trends and Future Prospects, OECD/IEA, Paris. — (2006), World Energy Outlook 2006, OECD/IEA, Paris. — (2003), World Energy Investment Outlook, OECD/IEA, Paris. 660 World Energy Outlook 2007- ANNEXES
Malti, G. (2007), Carbon Capture and Storage technology for sustainable energy future – Meeting Report, International Workshop on R&D Challenges in CO 2 Capture and Storage Technology for Sustainable Energy Future, 12-13 January, Hyderabad, India. McCloskey (2007), McCloskey Coal Report, various issues, McCloskey, Petersfield. Ministry of Coal (2007a), Report of the Expert Committee on Road Map for Coal Sector Reforms, Part II, April, Ministry of Coal, Government of India, New Delhi. — (2007b), Annual Report 2006-2007, Ministry of Coal, Government of India, New Delhi. — (2005), Report of the Expert Committee on Road Map for Coal Sector Reforms, Part I, December, Ministry of Coal, Government of India, New Delhi. Ministry of Finance (2007), Economic Survey 2006-2007, available at: http://indiabudget.nic.in/ Ministry of Power (2007), Report of the Working Group on Power for Eleventh Five-Year Plan (2007/12), Volume II, Main Report, MoP, New Delhi. NEA/IAEA (2006), Uranium 2005: Resources, Production and Demand, OECD, Paris. Planning Commission (2006), Integrated Energy Policy: Report of the Expert Committee, Planning Commission, New Delhi. Singh, A, V.A. Mendhe and A. Garg (2006), CO 2 Sequestration Potential of Geological Formations in India, GHGT8 Conference, 19-23 June, Trondheim. Sonde, R.R. (2006), Prospects for CCS in India, Technical Workshop on Carbon Capture and Storage, New Delhi. TERI (2007), TERI Energy Data Directory and Yearbook 2005/06, The Energy and Resources Institute, New Delhi. — (2006), National Energy Map for India — Technology Vision 2030, The Energy and Resources Institute, New Delhi. US Department of Labor, Mine Safety and Health Administration (2007), www.msha.gov/stats/centurystats/coalstats.asp, accessed 26 May. Chapter 18: Alternative Policy Scenario Projections IEA (2008, forthcoming), Assessment of upgrading and replacement of older coalfired units in major coal using economies, OECD/IEA, Paris. Ministry of Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises (2006), Automotive Mission Plan 2006-2016, New Delhi. D Annex D - References 661
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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FOREWORD World leaders have pledged
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was pre
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Helen Dickinson Carmen Difiglio Sim
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Tarhan Feyzioğlu John Fu Hu Gao We
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Comments and questions are welcome
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GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS ENERGY TRENDS
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Explaining China’s and India’s
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Oil Resources and Reserves 318 Oil
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16 17 Reference Scenario Demand Pro
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List of Figures Introduction 1. Sha
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3.9 Share of Energy in World Intern
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9.7 International Comparison of Fle
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13.5 Contribution of the Coastal Re
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18.4 India’s CO 2 Emissions in th
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2.2 Sectoral Shares in Final Energy
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11.6 Key Policy Assumptions in Chin
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List of Boxes Introduction 1. Model
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16.5 Kerosene Use in Rural Areas of
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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above current levels in 2030. To ac
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Reference Scenario. In the High Gro
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Reference Scenario, primary energy
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By contrast, faster implementation
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of this increase. China is by far t
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There are large potential gains to
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India are now so big that they are
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of the two giants in international
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second trading period (2008-2012) o
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Table 1: World Population Growth (a
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high (see below). In the longer ter
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Table 3: Fossil-Fuel Price Assumpti
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$41 per tonne to $63 in 2006 (in ye
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In line with last year’s Outlook,
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equilibrium for international trade
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CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
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standards for vehicles and new meas
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Figure 1.2: Increase in World Prima
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Global primary energy intensity, me
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Figure 1.6: Share of Transport in P
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Russia, Central Asia, Latin America
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It is certainly possible that decli
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Table 1.5: World Primary Natural Ga
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developments in clean coal technolo
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in the form of coking coal, grow st
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(Table 1.8). India and China experi
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Table 1.9: Cumulative Investment in
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policy implementation is critical:
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transition economies, because there
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15.1% in 2030, compared with 11.7%
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Table 1.12: World Primary Natural G
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Figure 1.19: Incremental Non-Fossil
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Figure 1.20: Fuel Mix in World Powe
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Table 1.14: World Primary Energy De
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The regional effect on oil imports
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in the Reference Scenario to 1 481
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The High Growth Scenario projection
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Reference Scenario Energy Demand Th
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having rebounded in the early part
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80% Figure 2.3: Fuel Mix in Power G
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SPOTLIGHT Are China and India Follo
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For both China and India, the story
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imports are projected to rise furth
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equires $956 billion of capital spe
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Table 2.4: Primary Energy Demand in
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Figure 2.9: Primary Energy Demand i
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China and India in the Global Econo
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production and exports of manufactu
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International Trade and Financial F
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total coal use in 2005, and the sec
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total stock of Chinese ODI amounted
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fear that Chinese and Indian export
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SPOTLIGHT (continued) In general, e
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Box 3.2: Modelling Economic and Ene
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Table 3.2: Fossil-Fuel Prices in th
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etween 5% and 8% in the High Growth
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Table 3.3: World Real GDP Growth in
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The results presented here should b
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Energy Security in a Global Market
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■ Adequate investment in producti
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efined products are global commodit
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Figure 4.1: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.3: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.4: Oil Export Flows from t
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Table 4.3: Net Natural Gas Imports
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Coal Coal dominates energy use in C
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Energy savings Diversification of f
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In China, oil security has emerged
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deprive the companies of profits an
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western markets. Any disruption to
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2015 and 20% higher in 2030. The ri
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Figure 4.10: Major World Oil Supply
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imports is demonstrated by the Alte
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prices to all consuming countries m
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Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Globa
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In the past two-and-a-half decades,
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Transport contributes roughly a fif
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Box 5.1: Regional Air Quality (Cont
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Box 5.2: Which Countries Emit the M
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egion (Table 5.3 and Figure 5.10).
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Figure 5.11: Change in Carbon Inten
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Table 5.4: CO 2 Concentrations and
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illustrate the magnitude and urgenc
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Energy Demand by Sector CO 2 emissi
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Figure 5.13: Electricity Generation
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The capital costs involved in stabi
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Focus on Prospects for Clean Coal T
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Technologies involving the absorpti
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There are a number of barriers to t
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scheduled to operate in the first h
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CHAPTER 6 ENERGY POLICY RAMIFICATIO
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■ Conserving energy: Conservation
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The results of our Alternative Poli
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increasing need for oil and gas. Th
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Co-operation is a two-way street; I
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Technology Co-operation and Collabo
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continue to make an important contr
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een registered, are being validated
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PART B CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context 1 Established
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percentage points over 2001. 3 In 2
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education. However, the government
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Capital accumulation was boosted by
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several times since the beginning o
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Yet pockets of extreme poverty rema
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year over the projection period, re
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infrastructure, housing and service
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CHAPTER 8 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SE
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In the 1980s and 1990s, energy dema
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Industry has long been the largest
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Figure 8.3: China’s Energy Produc
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Figure 8.4: Organisation of Energy
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Box 8.2: Energy Goals in China’s
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Box 8.3: Coal-Based Alternative Fue
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projects are still the largest alte
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of these businesses. In its early s
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and retail competition, but much wo
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Access to Modern Energy China has a
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CHAPTER 9 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAND
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growth (Table 9.1). It is possible
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Table 9.3: China’s Primary Energy
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with an 89% share in 2005. By 2030,
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exported goods was only 197 Mtoe, o
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energy intensity of 9% in steel pro
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Non-Metallic Minerals The non-metal
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to 7.0% in 2005-2015 and 4.4% in 20
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Box 9.2: Prospects for Alternative
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develop their own-brand vehicles in
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standards are most stringent for he
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nearly one-fifth of the increase in
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in cities is assumed to grow steadi
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Appliance efficiency improvements w
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FGD units installed, along with the
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Table 9.8: Emissions of Major Pollu
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generate almost 1.2 billion CERs by
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CHAPTER 10 REFERENCE SCENARIO SUPPL
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Figure 10.1: China’s Oil and Gas
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Table 10.2: China’s Oil Productio
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Oil Refining China’s refining cap
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Saudi Aramco taking combined stakes
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Box 10.2: China’s Emergency Oil S
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which close to 90% are onshore (Tab
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Table 10.5: China’s Natural Gas P
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e built, because of concerns about
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coal resources lie in the provinces
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Table 10.7: China’s Coal Producti
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of 829 Mt of coal each year by the
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An outside-plan spot market has exi
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Figure 10.13: China’s Hard Coal T
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Figure 10.14: Electricity Generatio
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China is pursuing a dual objective
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Capacity Requirements In the past t
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to consumers approximately 70% of a
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8 Figure 10.17: Plant Generating Co
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undertaken because of its economic
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China designated biofuels as a prio
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could help China achieve its object
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Background and Assumptions China’
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and consumption technologies. By 20
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Reference Scenario. More than two-t
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The most striking difference concer
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The slow-down in the growth of CO 2
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power generation and improving the
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of nuclear power reaches 6% of tota
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educing industrial consumption, eit
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towards gas-based ammonia productio
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Summary of Results In the Alternati
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Table 11.8: Policy Assumptions in C
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improve and appliance ownership inc
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Box 11.2: Cost-Effectiveness of Imp
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Investment in fossil-fuel supply is
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On the other hand, higher economic
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two-thirds of incremental oil deman
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Of the main final sectors, the tran
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Higher international prices also bo
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128 bcm to 216 bcm in 2030. In orde
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generation reaches 7.4 MWh, close t
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Though higher economic growth would
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The magnitude of the region’s imp
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Table 13.1: Economic Indicators by
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Figure 13.2: Share of the Coastal R
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Figure 13.3: Provincial Energy Inte
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incremental final energy demand. Fo
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Industry Industry is today the main
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the population in Beijing having ac
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The coastal provinces, with a deman
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APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 13: CHINA COAST
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PART C INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context India is a fe
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up from 9% in 2005 and 8.3% in 2004
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Assam are on average poorer than ma
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in manufacturing productivity was t
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Economic Challenges Continuation of
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South Asia is the least integrated
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Box 14.2: Special Economic Zones in
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ecently extended into petrochemical
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CHAPTER 15 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY S
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after China and the United States.
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Box 15.1: India's Energy Statistics
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which was created in 1984 to reduce
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■ Electricity Regulatory Commissi
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and production, and in liquefied na
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(because of the captive restriction
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Table 15.3: India's Integrated Ener
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of Finance's Economic Survey 2006-2
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Box 15.3: Public-Private Partnershi
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CHAPTER 16 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAN
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Most energy prices in India are con
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Energy demand in the residential se
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Iron and Steel Industry India’s i
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80%. Past subsidies eliminated ince
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The transport sector currently cons
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Box 16.3: Upside Potential of Trans
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Figure 16.6: Residential Fuel Mix i
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Biomass use in urban households 14
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Kerosene and LPG supply 83% of the
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Other Sectors The services sector a
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from other sources - mainly industr
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Despite improvements in thermal eff
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Oil Supply Resources and Reserves I
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and decline to just under 400 kb/d
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expansions of cracking units. Betwe
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For crude oil alone, India's import
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Figure 17.5: Main Oil and Gas Infra
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come from offshore non-associated g
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Figure 17.7: India's Natural Gas Ba
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98 billion tonnes, principally in J
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Table 17.8: Coal Production in Indi
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15 000 Figure 17.9: Coal-Mining Pro
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Figure 17.10: India's Coal Producti
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India's coal-fired power plants are
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Box 17.4: CO 2 Capture and Storage
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Box 17.5: India's Nuclear Power Gen
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8 Figure 17.13: Electricity Generat
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India receives abundant solar radia
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in power generation alone is estima
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In 2005, revenues from electricity
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Figure 17.17: Electricity Losses by
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were shut down. Despite past proble
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CHAPTER 18 ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENA
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Key Results Energy Demand Primary e
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energy demand in the Alternative Po
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18 Figure 18.3: Local Air Pollutant
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Box 18.1: The Impacts of Climate Ch
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Summary of Results Total electricit
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Box 18.2: Performance of India's Co
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1970s hydropower accounted for arou
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35 Figure 18.8: India's Energy Savi
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to compressed natural gas (CNG), wh
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Delhi has encountered problems rela
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Policy Scenario, it is assumed that
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Figure 18.11: Change in Investment
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tariffs in the services and industr
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Background and Assumptions There ar
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period by passenger cars, is the ma
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Box 19.1: The Vehicle Stock in the
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Oil and Gas The production profile
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Electricity Electricity generation
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in 2030 will still be low, at 2.7 t
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and rising emissions of CO 2 , NO x
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Outlook for Clean Cooking Fuel and
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focus of government policy is to ex
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The government has focused many pro
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Expanding Access to Electricity in
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stoves. According to the World Heal
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Subsidies on Kerosene and LPG, and
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Uttar Pradesh (4.4 million) and Wes
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ANNEXES
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Reference Scenario: World Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Reference Scenario: China Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Reference Scenario: India Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
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Reference Scenario: OECD Energy dem
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
Page 612 and 613: Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific En
Page 614 and 615: Reference Scenario: Japan Energy de
Page 616 and 617: Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ene
Page 618 and 619: Reference Scenario: European Union
Page 620 and 621: Reference Scenario: Transition econ
Page 622 and 623: Reference Scenario: Russia Energy d
Page 624 and 625: Reference Scenario: Developing coun
Page 626 and 627: Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
Page 628 and 629: Reference Scenario: Latin America E
Page 630 and 631: Reference Scenario: Middle East Ene
Page 632 and 633: Reference Scenario: Africa Energy d
Page 635 and 636: ANNEX B ABBREVIATIONS, DEFINITIONS
Page 637 and 638: Coal-bed Methane Methane found in c
Page 639 and 640: Other Renewables Includes geotherma
Page 641 and 642: international marine bunkers, excep
Page 643: Rest of Developing Asia Developing
Page 646 and 647: IAEA IEA IGCC IMF IOC IPCC IPP LDV
Page 649 and 650: ANNEX D REFERENCES Introduction Int
Page 651 and 652: Stevens, C. and J. Kennan (2006), H
Page 653 and 654: — (2004), World Energy Outlook 20
Page 655 and 656: International Energy Agency (IEA, 2
Page 657 and 658: Chew Chong Siang (2006), Current St
Page 659 and 660: Williams, R. O., A. McKane et al. (
Page 661: Garg, A. et al. (2006), “The sect
Page 665: Pachauri, S. (2007), An Energy Anal
Page 674: IEA PUBLICATIONS, 9, rue de la Féd
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