World Energy Outlook 2007

CHAPTER 19
HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO PROJECTIONS
HIGHLIGHTS
India’s economic outlook is very uncertain. One strong possibility is that
the economy will grow faster than the rate assumed in the Reference
Scenario. In the High Growth Scenario, GDP growth in India is assumed
to average 7.8% per year in 2005-2030 compared with 6.3% in the
Reference Scenario. GDP per capita is five times higher in 2030 in the
High Growth Scenario than in 2005. Higher economic growth would
require a substantial acceleration and deepening of structural, institutional
and price reforms and more rapid infrastructure development.
India’s primary energy demand expands by 4.2% per year, compared to
3.6% in the Reference Scenario. Coal and oil demand accounts for most
of the increase. Oil demand rises to 8.3 mb/d in 2030, 1.8 mb/d more than
in the Reference Scenario, driven by a dramatic increase in the vehicle
stock. Reliance on biomass is reduced, as higher incomes lead to greater use
of cleaner, more efficient fuels. Electricity generation per capita rises to
2 400 kWh in 2030, slightly higher than in Turkey now.
Net oil imports rise to 7.7 mb/d in 2030 and India becomes the thirdlargest
oil importer, after the United States and China, soon after 2020.
Because of the higher prices associated with higher demand, and greater
import needs, India’s cumulative fossil-fuel import bill in 2006-2030 is
$1.1 trillion higher.
Cumulative investment in energy infrastructure rises to $1.7 trillion in
2006-2030, compared with $1.25 trillion in the Reference Scenario.
More than 70% of the increase is in power generation. Oil investments are
$90 billion higher because of the deployment of enhanced recovery
techniques. By contrast, gas investments increase by only 17%, to
$74 billion, and $11 billion more is needed in coal infrastructure.
CO 2
emissions are projected to rise to 3.9 Gt in 2030, an increase of 2.8 Gt
above current levels. India’s emissions exceed those of Japan before 2010
and those of Russia just before 2015. Per-capita emissions by 2030,
however, are still low, at 2.7 tonnes. Greater reliance on fossil fuels results
in higher emissions of SO 2
and NO x
, but emissions of particulate matter
arising from burning biomass for cooking and heating decline.
Faster economic growth accelerates the alleviation of energy poverty in the
High Growth Scenario. All households in India have access to electricity by
2030, compared with an electrification rate of 96% in the Reference
Scenario. But higher import bills and rising local pollution and CO 2
emissions highlight the need for strong and immediate policy action, as
described in the Alternative Policy Scenario.
Chapter 19 – High Growth Scenario Projections
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