World Energy Outlook 2007

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Oil and Gas The production profile of existing and future fields in India is a major source of uncertainty. Enhanced oil recovery techniques have been applied to only 26 of the 136 fields currently producing, most of which have proven and probable reserves of more than 50 million barrels (Mb). With higher oil prices in the High Growth Scenario, enhanced recovery techniques could be profitably applied to more fields, even though these techniques are expensive for very small fields. We estimate that the application of such techniques to fields with proven and probable reserves as low as 20 Mb could add 120 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) to Indian production by 2030, two-thirds of which could come from the 12 largest existing fields (Table 19.3). It would significantly raise the recovery rate 3 , which currently averages 24% at existing fields and 21% for fields where only primary recovery techniques are used. At fields where improved and enhanced recovery techniques are used, recovery rates today average close to 33%. Our analysis only covers the 12 largest producing fields. The potential for raising production from eight currently producing fields holding more than 50 Mb, which are not covered by our analysis, is not thought to be large. In practice, it is unlikely that it would be economic to deploy secondary and tertiary recovery at all fields. In addition, the application of enhanced recovery techniques in the higher price environment of the High Growth Scenario is based on the uncertain assumption that price reform in the oil and gas sector, by alleviating the burden of funding subsidies, allows the oil companies to invest more in upstream projects. Table 19.3: Incremental Oil Production from the Deployment of Enhanced Oil Recovery in the High Growth Scenario* (kb/d) 2010 2015 2030 Top 12 existing fields** 83 92 82 Identified non-producing fields 22 51 38 With reserves higher than 50 Mb (6 fields) 16 33 25 With reserves higher than 30 Mb (5 fields) 6 15 11 With reserves higher than 20 Mb (4 fields) 0 3 2 Total 105 143 120 * Relative to the Reference Scenario. ** See Table 17.3 for the names of the 12 largest producing fields. Note: Production figures are based on the assumption that EOR techniques are applied to all fields, allowing recovery of an additional 10% of the oil originally in place. 3. The recovery rate is the percentage of the estimated volume of oil in a field that is actually recovered over the production life of the field. 566 World Energy Outlook 2007 - INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
Despite higher oil recovery rates, production still rises more slowly than demand in the High Growth Scenario, with India’s dependence on oil imports growing even faster than in the Reference Scenario. Net oil imports reach 7.7 mb/d in 2030, 1.6 mb/d more than in the Reference Scenario. The rise is much more dramatic in 2015-2030 (Figure 19.5), with rapidly growing demand in the transport sector. India surpasses Japan to become the thirdlargest oil importer, after the United States and China, soon after 2020. 400 Figure 19.5: Oil and Gas Net Imports in the Reference and High Growth Scenarios 350 300 250 Mtoe 200 150 100 50 0 2005 2015 2030 Oil Reference Scenario Gas Reference Scenario Oil High Growth Scenario Gas High Growth Scenario Gas production is projected to benefit slightly from the higher price environment and higher oil production. In 2030, it reaches 52.2 bcm – 1.5 bcm higher than in the Reference Scenario. An increase in production in smaller, more marginal fields is responsible for most of the increase in gas production in the High Growth Scenario. Because domestic demand rises even faster, gas imports are 51 bcm, or 83%, higher in 2030 than in the Reference Scenario. Gas import dependence reaches 68%, 13 percentage points higher. Because of recent gas discoveries in India and the expectation that similar discoveries will be made over the Outlook period, the projections here might underestimate the potential for gas production in India. However, any upside potential will only materialise if gas prices under future New Exploration Licensing Policy rounds are allowed to follow market trends, thus creating an environment where necessary investments in exploration and production will be forthcoming. 19 Chapter 19 – High Growth Scenario Projections 567
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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FOREWORD World leaders have pledged
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was pre
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Helen Dickinson Carmen Difiglio Sim
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Tarhan Feyzioğlu John Fu Hu Gao We
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Comments and questions are welcome
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GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS ENERGY TRENDS
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Explaining China’s and India’s
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Oil Resources and Reserves 318 Oil
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16 17 Reference Scenario Demand Pro
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List of Figures Introduction 1. Sha
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3.9 Share of Energy in World Intern
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9.7 International Comparison of Fle
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13.5 Contribution of the Coastal Re
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18.4 India’s CO 2 Emissions in th
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2.2 Sectoral Shares in Final Energy
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11.6 Key Policy Assumptions in Chin
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List of Boxes Introduction 1. Model
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16.5 Kerosene Use in Rural Areas of
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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above current levels in 2030. To ac
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Reference Scenario. In the High Gro
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Reference Scenario, primary energy
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By contrast, faster implementation
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of this increase. China is by far t
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There are large potential gains to
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India are now so big that they are
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of the two giants in international
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second trading period (2008-2012) o
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Table 1: World Population Growth (a
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high (see below). In the longer ter
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Table 3: Fossil-Fuel Price Assumpti
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$41 per tonne to $63 in 2006 (in ye
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In line with last year’s Outlook,
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equilibrium for international trade
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CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
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standards for vehicles and new meas
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Figure 1.2: Increase in World Prima
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Global primary energy intensity, me
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Figure 1.6: Share of Transport in P
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Russia, Central Asia, Latin America
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It is certainly possible that decli
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Table 1.5: World Primary Natural Ga
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developments in clean coal technolo
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in the form of coking coal, grow st
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(Table 1.8). India and China experi
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Table 1.9: Cumulative Investment in
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policy implementation is critical:
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transition economies, because there
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15.1% in 2030, compared with 11.7%
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Table 1.12: World Primary Natural G
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Figure 1.19: Incremental Non-Fossil
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Figure 1.20: Fuel Mix in World Powe
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Table 1.14: World Primary Energy De
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The regional effect on oil imports
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in the Reference Scenario to 1 481
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The High Growth Scenario projection
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Reference Scenario Energy Demand Th
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having rebounded in the early part
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80% Figure 2.3: Fuel Mix in Power G
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SPOTLIGHT Are China and India Follo
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For both China and India, the story
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imports are projected to rise furth
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equires $956 billion of capital spe
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Table 2.4: Primary Energy Demand in
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Figure 2.9: Primary Energy Demand i
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China and India in the Global Econo
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production and exports of manufactu
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International Trade and Financial F
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total coal use in 2005, and the sec
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total stock of Chinese ODI amounted
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fear that Chinese and Indian export
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SPOTLIGHT (continued) In general, e
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Box 3.2: Modelling Economic and Ene
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Table 3.2: Fossil-Fuel Prices in th
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etween 5% and 8% in the High Growth
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Table 3.3: World Real GDP Growth in
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The results presented here should b
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Energy Security in a Global Market
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■ Adequate investment in producti
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efined products are global commodit
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Figure 4.1: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.3: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.4: Oil Export Flows from t
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Table 4.3: Net Natural Gas Imports
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Coal Coal dominates energy use in C
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Energy savings Diversification of f
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In China, oil security has emerged
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deprive the companies of profits an
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western markets. Any disruption to
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2015 and 20% higher in 2030. The ri
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Figure 4.10: Major World Oil Supply
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imports is demonstrated by the Alte
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prices to all consuming countries m
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Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Globa
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In the past two-and-a-half decades,
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Transport contributes roughly a fif
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Box 5.1: Regional Air Quality (Cont
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Box 5.2: Which Countries Emit the M
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egion (Table 5.3 and Figure 5.10).
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Figure 5.11: Change in Carbon Inten
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Table 5.4: CO 2 Concentrations and
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illustrate the magnitude and urgenc
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Energy Demand by Sector CO 2 emissi
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Figure 5.13: Electricity Generation
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The capital costs involved in stabi
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Focus on Prospects for Clean Coal T
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Technologies involving the absorpti
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There are a number of barriers to t
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scheduled to operate in the first h
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CHAPTER 6 ENERGY POLICY RAMIFICATIO
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■ Conserving energy: Conservation
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The results of our Alternative Poli
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increasing need for oil and gas. Th
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Co-operation is a two-way street; I
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Technology Co-operation and Collabo
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continue to make an important contr
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een registered, are being validated
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PART B CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context 1 Established
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percentage points over 2001. 3 In 2
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education. However, the government
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Capital accumulation was boosted by
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several times since the beginning o
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Yet pockets of extreme poverty rema
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year over the projection period, re
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infrastructure, housing and service
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CHAPTER 8 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SE
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In the 1980s and 1990s, energy dema
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Industry has long been the largest
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Figure 8.3: China’s Energy Produc
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Figure 8.4: Organisation of Energy
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Box 8.2: Energy Goals in China’s
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Box 8.3: Coal-Based Alternative Fue
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projects are still the largest alte
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of these businesses. In its early s
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and retail competition, but much wo
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Access to Modern Energy China has a
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CHAPTER 9 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAND
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growth (Table 9.1). It is possible
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Table 9.3: China’s Primary Energy
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with an 89% share in 2005. By 2030,
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exported goods was only 197 Mtoe, o
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energy intensity of 9% in steel pro
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Non-Metallic Minerals The non-metal
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to 7.0% in 2005-2015 and 4.4% in 20
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Box 9.2: Prospects for Alternative
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develop their own-brand vehicles in
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standards are most stringent for he
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nearly one-fifth of the increase in
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in cities is assumed to grow steadi
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Appliance efficiency improvements w
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FGD units installed, along with the
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Table 9.8: Emissions of Major Pollu
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generate almost 1.2 billion CERs by
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CHAPTER 10 REFERENCE SCENARIO SUPPL
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Figure 10.1: China’s Oil and Gas
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Table 10.2: China’s Oil Productio
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Oil Refining China’s refining cap
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Saudi Aramco taking combined stakes
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Box 10.2: China’s Emergency Oil S
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which close to 90% are onshore (Tab
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Table 10.5: China’s Natural Gas P
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e built, because of concerns about
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coal resources lie in the provinces
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Table 10.7: China’s Coal Producti
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of 829 Mt of coal each year by the
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An outside-plan spot market has exi
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Figure 10.13: China’s Hard Coal T
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Figure 10.14: Electricity Generatio
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China is pursuing a dual objective
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Capacity Requirements In the past t
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to consumers approximately 70% of a
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8 Figure 10.17: Plant Generating Co
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undertaken because of its economic
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China designated biofuels as a prio
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could help China achieve its object
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Background and Assumptions China’
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and consumption technologies. By 20
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Reference Scenario. More than two-t
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The most striking difference concer
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The slow-down in the growth of CO 2
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power generation and improving the
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of nuclear power reaches 6% of tota
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educing industrial consumption, eit
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towards gas-based ammonia productio
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Summary of Results In the Alternati
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Table 11.8: Policy Assumptions in C
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improve and appliance ownership inc
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Box 11.2: Cost-Effectiveness of Imp
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Investment in fossil-fuel supply is
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On the other hand, higher economic
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two-thirds of incremental oil deman
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Of the main final sectors, the tran
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Higher international prices also bo
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128 bcm to 216 bcm in 2030. In orde
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generation reaches 7.4 MWh, close t
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Though higher economic growth would
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The magnitude of the region’s imp
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Table 13.1: Economic Indicators by
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Figure 13.2: Share of the Coastal R
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Figure 13.3: Provincial Energy Inte
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incremental final energy demand. Fo
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Industry Industry is today the main
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the population in Beijing having ac
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The coastal provinces, with a deman
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APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 13: CHINA COAST
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PART C INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context India is a fe
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up from 9% in 2005 and 8.3% in 2004
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Assam are on average poorer than ma
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in manufacturing productivity was t
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Economic Challenges Continuation of
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South Asia is the least integrated
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Box 14.2: Special Economic Zones in
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ecently extended into petrochemical
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CHAPTER 15 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY S
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after China and the United States.
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Box 15.1: India's Energy Statistics
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which was created in 1984 to reduce
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■ Electricity Regulatory Commissi
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and production, and in liquefied na
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(because of the captive restriction
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Table 15.3: India's Integrated Ener
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of Finance's Economic Survey 2006-2
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Box 15.3: Public-Private Partnershi
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CHAPTER 16 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAN
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Most energy prices in India are con
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Energy demand in the residential se
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Iron and Steel Industry India’s i
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80%. Past subsidies eliminated ince
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The transport sector currently cons
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Box 16.3: Upside Potential of Trans
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Figure 16.6: Residential Fuel Mix i
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Biomass use in urban households 14
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Kerosene and LPG supply 83% of the
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Other Sectors The services sector a
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from other sources - mainly industr
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Despite improvements in thermal eff
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Oil Supply Resources and Reserves I
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and decline to just under 400 kb/d
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expansions of cracking units. Betwe
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For crude oil alone, India's import
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Figure 17.5: Main Oil and Gas Infra
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come from offshore non-associated g
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Figure 17.7: India's Natural Gas Ba
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98 billion tonnes, principally in J
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Table 17.8: Coal Production in Indi
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15 000 Figure 17.9: Coal-Mining Pro
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Figure 17.10: India's Coal Producti
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India's coal-fired power plants are
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Box 17.4: CO 2 Capture and Storage
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Page 522 and 523: India receives abundant solar radia
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Page 526 and 527: In 2005, revenues from electricity
Page 528 and 529: Figure 17.17: Electricity Losses by
Page 530 and 531: were shut down. Despite past proble
Page 533 and 534: CHAPTER 18 ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENA
Page 535 and 536: Key Results Energy Demand Primary e
Page 537 and 538: energy demand in the Alternative Po
Page 539 and 540: 18 Figure 18.3: Local Air Pollutant
Page 541 and 542: Box 18.1: The Impacts of Climate Ch
Page 543 and 544: Summary of Results Total electricit
Page 545 and 546: Box 18.2: Performance of India's Co
Page 547 and 548: 1970s hydropower accounted for arou
Page 549 and 550: 35 Figure 18.8: India's Energy Savi
Page 551 and 552: to compressed natural gas (CNG), wh
Page 553 and 554: Delhi has encountered problems rela
Page 555 and 556: Policy Scenario, it is assumed that
Page 557 and 558: Figure 18.11: Change in Investment
Page 559: tariffs in the services and industr
Page 562 and 563: Background and Assumptions There ar
Page 564 and 565: period by passenger cars, is the ma
Page 566 and 567: Box 19.1: The Vehicle Stock in the
Page 570 and 571: Electricity Electricity generation
Page 572 and 573: in 2030 will still be low, at 2.7 t
Page 574 and 575: and rising emissions of CO 2 , NO x
Page 576 and 577: Outlook for Clean Cooking Fuel and
Page 578 and 579: focus of government policy is to ex
Page 580 and 581: The government has focused many pro
Page 582 and 583: Expanding Access to Electricity in
Page 584 and 585: stoves. According to the World Heal
Page 586 and 587: Subsidies on Kerosene and LPG, and
Page 588 and 589: Uttar Pradesh (4.4 million) and Wes
Page 591: ANNEXES
Page 594 and 595: Reference Scenario: World Energy de
Page 596 and 597: Alternative Policy Scenario: World
Page 598 and 599: Reference Scenario: China Energy de
Page 600 and 601: Alternative Policy Scenario: China
Page 602 and 603: Reference Scenario: India Energy de
Page 604 and 605: Alternative Policy Scenario: India
Page 606 and 607: Reference Scenario: OECD Energy dem
Page 608 and 609: Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
Page 610 and 611: Reference Scenario: United States E
Page 612 and 613: Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific En
Page 614 and 615: Reference Scenario: Japan Energy de
Page 616 and 617: Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ene
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Energy d
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Reference Scenario: Developing coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ene
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Reference Scenario: Africa Energy d
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ANNEX B ABBREVIATIONS, DEFINITIONS
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Coal-bed Methane Methane found in c
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Other Renewables Includes geotherma
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international marine bunkers, excep
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Rest of Developing Asia Developing
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IAEA IEA IGCC IMF IOC IPCC IPP LDV
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ANNEX D REFERENCES Introduction Int
Page 651 and 652:
Stevens, C. and J. Kennan (2006), H
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— (2004), World Energy Outlook 20
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International Energy Agency (IEA, 2
Page 657 and 658:
Chew Chong Siang (2006), Current St
Page 659 and 660:
Williams, R. O., A. McKane et al. (
Page 661 and 662:
Garg, A. et al. (2006), “The sect
Page 663 and 664:
Malti, G. (2007), Carbon Capture an
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Pachauri, S. (2007), An Energy Anal
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