World Energy Outlook 2007

standards are most stringent for heavier classes (An and Sauer, 2004). In the
Reference Scenario we assume that the standards are prolonged and
tightened progressively. In 2030 a new car in China will have, on average,
the same efficiency as an EU model in 2012.
China is also tightening vehicle emission standards. In most provinces, they are
currently at the level of Euro II standards, which came into force in the
European Union in 1996. Euro III standards have been adopted in Beijing and
Guangzhou. Current plans call for adoption of Euro III for LDVs by July 2007
and Euro IV from July 2010 (Global Insight, 2006). However, significant
challenges face Chinese refineries in meeting demand for high-quality fuels.
New passenger vehicle crash standards will come into force in 2009. 11 Because
of the external standards to which they have been built, foreign brands will
have a competitive advantage over local brands in complying with both
emission and crash standards.
Figure 9.7: International Comparison of Fleet Average Fuel Economy Standards
as of July 2007
9
10
9
litres per 100 km
8
7
6
5
4
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Japan
Canada
European Union
California
China
United States
Australia
Sources: IEA database; An and Sauer (2004); ICCT (2007).
11. In 2005, there were more than 450 000 traffic accidents with 100 000 fatalities (Global
Insight, 2006).
Chapter 9 - Reference Scenario Demand Projections 303