World Energy Outlook 2007

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In the Reference Scenario, the Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan-China gas pipeline is assumed to come on stream later than announced, by the middle of next decade. In addition, we expect the Shenzhen, Putian and Yangshan LNG plants to be fully operational by 2012. Even taking into account those import projects, we estimate that substantial additional import capacity will be required from the end of next decade, reaching 80 bcm in 2030 (Figure 10.9). This suggests that all the LNG projects at the planning stage reported in Table 10.6, with combined capacity of 28 bcm, will be needed to balance the Chinese gas market from about 2020 onwards. Other LNG or pipeline projects would be necessary after 2025. China has for long been in negotiation with Russia over access to gas, via pipeline or in the form of LNG. 140 120 100 80 Figure 10.9: China’s Natural Gas Imports in the Reference Scenario bcm 60 40 20 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Existing, under construction and confirmed capacities Additional capacities required Coal Supply Coal Resources and Reserves China’s remaining coal resources are second only to Russia’s, totalling 1 003 billion tonnes (General Geological Bureau, 1999). These resources have been defined by exploration and mapping, but only 115 billion tonnes can be regarded as proven reserves, yielding a reserve-to-production ratio of around 50 years at current production levels. More recent assessments conclude that proven reserves could be as high as 192 billion tonnes (Barlow Jonker, 2007). A prospecting programme is currently under way to prove up more resources, using revenues from the competitive tendering of mining rights. China’s coal resources lie predominantly outside the major demand centres, which are located in the industrialised east and south-east (Figure 10.10). Some 80% of 334 World Energy Outlook 2007 - CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
coal resources lie in the provinces of Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Ningxia, Hebei, Gansu and Qinghai that together make up China’s north-west. Shanxi has the most hard coking coal, with 26 billion tonnes, or 38% of China’s total resources. Just 6% of coal resources lie in the coastal provinces. To reach consumers, some coal must therefore be transported over very long distances, resulting in congestion on China’s national railway system and much higher costs. Figure 10.10: China’s Coal Resources Very high volatile - sub-bituminous coal Very low volatile - high volatile coal (10% - 43% VM) Lignite / brown coal Anthracite Heilongjiang Jilin Inner Mongolia Xinjiang Gansu Beijing Liaoning Hebei Tianjin Shanxi 10 Qinghai Ningxia Shandong Jiangsu Tibet Sichuan Shaanxi Henan Anhui Shanghai Hubei Chongqing Hunan Jiangxi Zhejiang Guizhou Fujian 0 - 1 billion tonnes 1 - 10 billion tonnes 10 - 100 billion tonnes Yunnan Guangxi Guangdong Taiwan 100 billion tonnes & above Hainan The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the IEA. Source: Beijing HL Consulting (2006). The most significant coal fields in China date from the Jurassic period and account for approximately 60% of known deposits. They produce good quality steam coal, typically high volatile, with low ash (5% to 10%) and low sulphur (less than 1%). Older coals, from the Carboniferous and Permian periods, are also important, ranging from anthracites to high volatile bituminous coal and much good quality, medium volatile, coking coal (Barlow Jonker, 2005). Ash Chapter 10 - Reference Scenario Supply Projections 335
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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FOREWORD World leaders have pledged
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was pre
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Helen Dickinson Carmen Difiglio Sim
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Tarhan Feyzioğlu John Fu Hu Gao We
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Comments and questions are welcome
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GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS ENERGY TRENDS
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Explaining China’s and India’s
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Oil Resources and Reserves 318 Oil
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16 17 Reference Scenario Demand Pro
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List of Figures Introduction 1. Sha
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3.9 Share of Energy in World Intern
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9.7 International Comparison of Fle
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13.5 Contribution of the Coastal Re
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18.4 India’s CO 2 Emissions in th
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2.2 Sectoral Shares in Final Energy
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11.6 Key Policy Assumptions in Chin
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List of Boxes Introduction 1. Model
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16.5 Kerosene Use in Rural Areas of
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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above current levels in 2030. To ac
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Reference Scenario. In the High Gro
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Reference Scenario, primary energy
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By contrast, faster implementation
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of this increase. China is by far t
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There are large potential gains to
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India are now so big that they are
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of the two giants in international
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second trading period (2008-2012) o
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Table 1: World Population Growth (a
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high (see below). In the longer ter
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Table 3: Fossil-Fuel Price Assumpti
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$41 per tonne to $63 in 2006 (in ye
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In line with last year’s Outlook,
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equilibrium for international trade
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CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
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standards for vehicles and new meas
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Figure 1.2: Increase in World Prima
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Global primary energy intensity, me
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Figure 1.6: Share of Transport in P
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Russia, Central Asia, Latin America
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It is certainly possible that decli
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Table 1.5: World Primary Natural Ga
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developments in clean coal technolo
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in the form of coking coal, grow st
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(Table 1.8). India and China experi
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Table 1.9: Cumulative Investment in
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policy implementation is critical:
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transition economies, because there
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15.1% in 2030, compared with 11.7%
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Table 1.12: World Primary Natural G
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Figure 1.19: Incremental Non-Fossil
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Figure 1.20: Fuel Mix in World Powe
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Table 1.14: World Primary Energy De
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The regional effect on oil imports
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in the Reference Scenario to 1 481
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The High Growth Scenario projection
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Reference Scenario Energy Demand Th
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having rebounded in the early part
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80% Figure 2.3: Fuel Mix in Power G
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SPOTLIGHT Are China and India Follo
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For both China and India, the story
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imports are projected to rise furth
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equires $956 billion of capital spe
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Table 2.4: Primary Energy Demand in
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Figure 2.9: Primary Energy Demand i
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China and India in the Global Econo
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production and exports of manufactu
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International Trade and Financial F
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total coal use in 2005, and the sec
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total stock of Chinese ODI amounted
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fear that Chinese and Indian export
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SPOTLIGHT (continued) In general, e
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Box 3.2: Modelling Economic and Ene
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Table 3.2: Fossil-Fuel Prices in th
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etween 5% and 8% in the High Growth
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Table 3.3: World Real GDP Growth in
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The results presented here should b
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Energy Security in a Global Market
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■ Adequate investment in producti
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efined products are global commodit
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Figure 4.1: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.3: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.4: Oil Export Flows from t
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Table 4.3: Net Natural Gas Imports
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Coal Coal dominates energy use in C
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Energy savings Diversification of f
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In China, oil security has emerged
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deprive the companies of profits an
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western markets. Any disruption to
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2015 and 20% higher in 2030. The ri
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Figure 4.10: Major World Oil Supply
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imports is demonstrated by the Alte
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prices to all consuming countries m
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Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Globa
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In the past two-and-a-half decades,
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Transport contributes roughly a fif
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Box 5.1: Regional Air Quality (Cont
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Box 5.2: Which Countries Emit the M
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egion (Table 5.3 and Figure 5.10).
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Figure 5.11: Change in Carbon Inten
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Table 5.4: CO 2 Concentrations and
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illustrate the magnitude and urgenc
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Energy Demand by Sector CO 2 emissi
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Figure 5.13: Electricity Generation
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The capital costs involved in stabi
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Focus on Prospects for Clean Coal T
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Technologies involving the absorpti
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There are a number of barriers to t
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scheduled to operate in the first h
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CHAPTER 6 ENERGY POLICY RAMIFICATIO
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■ Conserving energy: Conservation
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The results of our Alternative Poli
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increasing need for oil and gas. Th
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Co-operation is a two-way street; I
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Technology Co-operation and Collabo
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continue to make an important contr
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een registered, are being validated
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PART B CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context 1 Established
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percentage points over 2001. 3 In 2
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education. However, the government
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Capital accumulation was boosted by
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several times since the beginning o
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Yet pockets of extreme poverty rema
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year over the projection period, re
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infrastructure, housing and service
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CHAPTER 8 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SE
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In the 1980s and 1990s, energy dema
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Industry has long been the largest
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Figure 8.3: China’s Energy Produc
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Figure 8.4: Organisation of Energy
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Box 8.2: Energy Goals in China’s
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Box 8.3: Coal-Based Alternative Fue
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projects are still the largest alte
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of these businesses. In its early s
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and retail competition, but much wo
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Access to Modern Energy China has a
Page 285 and 286: CHAPTER 9 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAND
Page 287 and 288: growth (Table 9.1). It is possible
Page 289 and 290: Table 9.3: China’s Primary Energy
Page 291 and 292: with an 89% share in 2005. By 2030,
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Page 295 and 296: energy intensity of 9% in steel pro
Page 297 and 298: Non-Metallic Minerals The non-metal
Page 299 and 300: to 7.0% in 2005-2015 and 4.4% in 20
Page 301 and 302: Box 9.2: Prospects for Alternative
Page 303 and 304: develop their own-brand vehicles in
Page 305 and 306: standards are most stringent for he
Page 307 and 308: nearly one-fifth of the increase in
Page 309 and 310: in cities is assumed to grow steadi
Page 311 and 312: Appliance efficiency improvements w
Page 313 and 314: FGD units installed, along with the
Page 315 and 316: Table 9.8: Emissions of Major Pollu
Page 317 and 318: generate almost 1.2 billion CERs by
Page 319 and 320: CHAPTER 10 REFERENCE SCENARIO SUPPL
Page 321 and 322: Figure 10.1: China’s Oil and Gas
Page 323 and 324: Table 10.2: China’s Oil Productio
Page 325 and 326: Oil Refining China’s refining cap
Page 327 and 328: Saudi Aramco taking combined stakes
Page 329 and 330: Box 10.2: China’s Emergency Oil S
Page 331 and 332: which close to 90% are onshore (Tab
Page 333 and 334: Table 10.5: China’s Natural Gas P
Page 335: e built, because of concerns about
Page 339 and 340: Table 10.7: China’s Coal Producti
Page 341 and 342: of 829 Mt of coal each year by the
Page 343 and 344: An outside-plan spot market has exi
Page 345 and 346: Figure 10.13: China’s Hard Coal T
Page 347 and 348: Figure 10.14: Electricity Generatio
Page 349 and 350: China is pursuing a dual objective
Page 351 and 352: Capacity Requirements In the past t
Page 353 and 354: to consumers approximately 70% of a
Page 355 and 356: 8 Figure 10.17: Plant Generating Co
Page 357 and 358: undertaken because of its economic
Page 359 and 360: China designated biofuels as a prio
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Page 364 and 365: Background and Assumptions China’
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Page 368 and 369: Reference Scenario. More than two-t
Page 370 and 371: The most striking difference concer
Page 372 and 373: The slow-down in the growth of CO 2
Page 374 and 375: power generation and improving the
Page 376 and 377: of nuclear power reaches 6% of tota
Page 378 and 379: educing industrial consumption, eit
Page 380 and 381: towards gas-based ammonia productio
Page 382 and 383: Summary of Results In the Alternati
Page 384 and 385: Table 11.8: Policy Assumptions in C
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improve and appliance ownership inc
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Box 11.2: Cost-Effectiveness of Imp
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Investment in fossil-fuel supply is
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On the other hand, higher economic
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two-thirds of incremental oil deman
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Of the main final sectors, the tran
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Higher international prices also bo
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128 bcm to 216 bcm in 2030. In orde
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generation reaches 7.4 MWh, close t
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Though higher economic growth would
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The magnitude of the region’s imp
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Table 13.1: Economic Indicators by
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Figure 13.2: Share of the Coastal R
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Figure 13.3: Provincial Energy Inte
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incremental final energy demand. Fo
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Industry Industry is today the main
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the population in Beijing having ac
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The coastal provinces, with a deman
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APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 13: CHINA COAST
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PART C INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context India is a fe
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up from 9% in 2005 and 8.3% in 2004
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Assam are on average poorer than ma
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in manufacturing productivity was t
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Economic Challenges Continuation of
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South Asia is the least integrated
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Box 14.2: Special Economic Zones in
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ecently extended into petrochemical
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CHAPTER 15 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY S
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after China and the United States.
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Box 15.1: India's Energy Statistics
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which was created in 1984 to reduce
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■ Electricity Regulatory Commissi
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and production, and in liquefied na
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(because of the captive restriction
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Table 15.3: India's Integrated Ener
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of Finance's Economic Survey 2006-2
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Box 15.3: Public-Private Partnershi
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CHAPTER 16 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAN
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Most energy prices in India are con
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Energy demand in the residential se
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Iron and Steel Industry India’s i
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80%. Past subsidies eliminated ince
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The transport sector currently cons
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Box 16.3: Upside Potential of Trans
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Figure 16.6: Residential Fuel Mix i
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Biomass use in urban households 14
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Kerosene and LPG supply 83% of the
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Other Sectors The services sector a
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from other sources - mainly industr
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Despite improvements in thermal eff
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Oil Supply Resources and Reserves I
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and decline to just under 400 kb/d
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expansions of cracking units. Betwe
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For crude oil alone, India's import
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Figure 17.5: Main Oil and Gas Infra
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come from offshore non-associated g
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Figure 17.7: India's Natural Gas Ba
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98 billion tonnes, principally in J
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Table 17.8: Coal Production in Indi
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15 000 Figure 17.9: Coal-Mining Pro
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Figure 17.10: India's Coal Producti
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India's coal-fired power plants are
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Box 17.4: CO 2 Capture and Storage
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Box 17.5: India's Nuclear Power Gen
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8 Figure 17.13: Electricity Generat
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India receives abundant solar radia
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in power generation alone is estima
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In 2005, revenues from electricity
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Figure 17.17: Electricity Losses by
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were shut down. Despite past proble
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CHAPTER 18 ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENA
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Key Results Energy Demand Primary e
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energy demand in the Alternative Po
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18 Figure 18.3: Local Air Pollutant
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Box 18.1: The Impacts of Climate Ch
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Summary of Results Total electricit
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Box 18.2: Performance of India's Co
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1970s hydropower accounted for arou
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35 Figure 18.8: India's Energy Savi
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to compressed natural gas (CNG), wh
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Delhi has encountered problems rela
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Policy Scenario, it is assumed that
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Figure 18.11: Change in Investment
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tariffs in the services and industr
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Background and Assumptions There ar
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period by passenger cars, is the ma
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Box 19.1: The Vehicle Stock in the
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Oil and Gas The production profile
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Electricity Electricity generation
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in 2030 will still be low, at 2.7 t
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and rising emissions of CO 2 , NO x
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Outlook for Clean Cooking Fuel and
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focus of government policy is to ex
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The government has focused many pro
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Expanding Access to Electricity in
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stoves. According to the World Heal
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Subsidies on Kerosene and LPG, and
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Uttar Pradesh (4.4 million) and Wes
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ANNEXES
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Reference Scenario: World Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
Page 598 and 599:
Reference Scenario: China Energy de
Page 600 and 601:
Alternative Policy Scenario: China
Page 602 and 603:
Reference Scenario: India Energy de
Page 604 and 605:
Alternative Policy Scenario: India
Page 606 and 607:
Reference Scenario: OECD Energy dem
Page 608 and 609:
Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
Page 612 and 613:
Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific En
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Reference Scenario: Japan Energy de
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Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ene
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Energy d
Page 624 and 625:
Reference Scenario: Developing coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ene
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Reference Scenario: Africa Energy d
Page 635 and 636:
ANNEX B ABBREVIATIONS, DEFINITIONS
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Coal-bed Methane Methane found in c
Page 639 and 640:
Other Renewables Includes geotherma
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international marine bunkers, excep
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Rest of Developing Asia Developing
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IAEA IEA IGCC IMF IOC IPCC IPP LDV
Page 649 and 650:
ANNEX D REFERENCES Introduction Int
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Stevens, C. and J. Kennan (2006), H
Page 653 and 654:
— (2004), World Energy Outlook 20
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International Energy Agency (IEA, 2
Page 657 and 658:
Chew Chong Siang (2006), Current St
Page 659 and 660:
Williams, R. O., A. McKane et al. (
Page 661 and 662:
Garg, A. et al. (2006), “The sect
Page 663 and 664:
Malti, G. (2007), Carbon Capture an
Page 665:
Pachauri, S. (2007), An Energy Anal
Page 674:
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