World Energy Outlook 2007

policy implementation is critical: delaying the implementation of these policies
and measures by ten years would reduce the savings in 2030 by two-thirds.
Global energy-related CO 2
emissions are 19% lower in 2030 than in the
Reference Scenario, but are still 27% higher than in 2005 (see Chapter 5).
1
Table 1.10: World Primary Energy Demand in the Alternative Policy Scenario
(Mtoe)
Difference from the
Reference Scenario
in 2030
2005 2015 2030 2005- Mtoe %
2030*
Coal 2 892 3 643 3 700 1.0% –1 294 –26
Oil 4 000 4 512 4 911 0.8% –675 –12
Gas 2 354 2 938 3 447 1.5% –501 –13
Nuclear 721 850 1 080 1.6% 226 27
Hydro 251 352 465 2.5% 48 12
Biomass and waste 1 149 1 359 1 738 1.7% 122 8
Other renewables 61 165 444 8.2% 136 44
Total 11 429 13 818 15 783 1.3% –1 937 –11
* Average annual rate of growth.
Lower fossil-energy consumption, resulting from the introduction of more
efficient technologies, accounts for most of the energy savings in the
Alternative Policy Scenario. 11 Nonetheless, demand for each of the three
fossil fuels continues to grow. They make up 76% of primary energy
demand in 2030, compared with 82% in the Reference Scenario. The
biggest savings in both absolute and percentage terms are in coal use
(Figure 1.14). OECD countries contribute 26% of the global energy savings
in 2030, developing countries 66% and the transition economies 7%. The
savings in China – at 29% of the world total – are bigger than those in any
other WEO region.
Primary energy intensity falls at an average rate of 2.3% per year in the
Alternative Policy Scenario – 0.5 percentage points faster than in the Reference
Scenario. The difference is bigger for the developing countries and the
11. Carbon capture and storage is assumed not to be deployed in either the Reference or Alternative
Policy Scenarios, because of doubts about whether technical and cost challenges can be overcome
before 2030 (see Introduction).
Chapter 1 - Global Energy Trends 97