World Energy Outlook 2007

Figure 2.9: Primary Energy Demand in China and India in the Reference
and High Growth Scenarios
5 000
China
India
4 000
Mtoe
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
2005 2015 2030 2005 2015 2030
Reference Scenario
High Growth Scenario
stronger final demand for electricity. Electricity consumption in 2030 is 28%
higher in China and 25% higher in India. Oil demand reaches 21.4 mb/d in
2030 in China – 4.9 mb/d, or 30%, more than in the Reference Scenario. In
India, it is 1.8 mb/d, or 27%, higher, at 8.3 mb/d. About two-thirds of this
increase comes from the transport sector in China and three-quarters in India.
Gas demand also grows faster, mainly driven by the power and residential
sectors.
China and India rely much more on imported fuels in the High Growth
Scenario, as higher prices stimulate only marginal increases in indigenous
production. Though coal production is 19% higher in 2030 in China and 13%
higher in India, with higher coal prices vis-à-vis the Reference Scenario, the
development of mining and inland transportation capacity trails the projected
surge in demand. China’s dependence on coal imports reaches 5% in 2030,
compared with 3% in the Reference Scenario. In India, the share of imports in
total coal supply in 2030, at 28%, is the same as in the Reference Scenario.
Although China’s oil imports are 31% higher in 2030, import dependence
increases by only one percentage point to 80% in 2030, due to the rise in
domestic production. For the same reason, India’s dependence is roughly stable
at 92%, even though imports are 27% higher than in the Reference Scenario.
Imports of natural gas rise strongly to meet higher demand, because indigenous
output is barely affected by higher prices.
134 World Energy Outlook 2007 - GLOBAL ENERGY PROSPECTS: IMPACT OF DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA & INDIA