World Energy Outlook 2007

and consumption technologies. By 2030, structural change accounts for 43%
of energy savings, and energy-efficiency improvements and fuel switching for
the rest (Figure 11.1). Energy-intensity improvements average 3.3% per year in
2005-2030 (against 2.6% in the Reference Scenario). Energy intensity is
reduced by 20% in 2013 relative to 2005. Most of the overall savings in the
Alternative Policy Scenario occur in 2015-2030, when more capital stock is
added or replaced.
Table 11.1: China’s Primary Energy Demand in the Alternative Policy Scenario
(Mtoe)
Difference from the
Reference Scenario
in 2030
2005 2015 2030 2005- Mtoe %
2030*
Coal 1 094 1 743 1 842 2.1% –556 –23.2
Oil 327 518 653 2.8% –155 –19.2
Gas 42 126 225 6.9% 25 12.6
Nuclear 14 44 120 9.0% 53 79.4
Hydro 34 75 109 4.8% 23 26.4
Biomass and waste 227 223 255 0.5% 28 12.4
Other renewables 3 14 52 11.9% 19 57.4
Total 1 742 2 743 3 256 2.5% –563 –14.7
* Average annual rate of growth.
Primary demand for coal and oil is reduced substantially compared with the
Reference Scenario. In contrast, demand for all other fuels – natural gas,
nuclear and renewables – increases. Coal accounts for 78% of energy savings in
the Alternative Policy Scenario in 2030. Coal consumption in 2030 is an eyecatching
23% lower than in the Reference Scenario. Policies directed towards
the industrial sector have the most effect – both through structural change and
improved energy efficiency. More efficient industrial applications and
increasing reliance on lighter industries directly contribute 22% of all the
savings in coal use (Figure 11.2). Close to 40% comes from reduced electricity
demand – to which industry contributes two-thirds – which cuts the need to
burn coal to generate power. More efficient coal-fired power plants and fuelswitching
account for another 30%. Coal inputs to coal-to-liquids (CTL)
plants increase, marginally offsetting the reductions in other sectors. Despite
the overall fall in coal use relative to the Reference Scenario, coal demand still
increases by about 70% between 2005 and 2030.
364 World Energy Outlook 2007 - CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS