World Energy Outlook 2007

Capacity Requirements
In the past twenty years, China has achieved an impressive development of its
electricity infrastructure. Installed power generation capacity increased from
66 GW in 1985 to 517 GW in 2005 and 622 GW in 2006. 12 Over 90% of the
capacity increase in 2006 was coal-fired. As noted earlier, over 100 GW of new
capacity was added in 2006. This was the largest year-on-year increase ever
recorded in China or, indeed, in any nation in the world. There has also been
significant investment in transmission and distribution as the generation base
develops and more load is connected to the system.
This rapid pace of increase in capacity in both generation and the network is
expected to continue. Over the projection period, generation investments
will lead to capacity additions of 1 312 GW, more than the current installed
capacity in the United States (Figure 10.15). Installed capacity will reach
1 775 GW by 2030, nearly as high as the current installed capacity of the
United States and the European Union combined.
Figure 10.15: China’s Generating Capacity Additions in the Reference Scenario,
2006-2030
6%
10
15%
2%
7%
0.2%
1 312 GW
70%
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Rest of renewables
Growth in investment in the electricity infrastructure has underpinned a
growing share of electricity in total energy end use. Network expansion has
provided greater access to electricity, especially for consumers in rural areas.
According to official statistics, by 2005, the electrification rate in China had
reached 99%, compared to 73% on average for developing Asia as a whole.
12. Historical capacity data are from the China Electricity Council’s website
(www.cec.org.cn).
Chapter 10 - Reference Scenario Supply Projections 349