World Energy Outlook 2007

Figure 2.2: Primary Oil Demand in China and India by Sector
in the Reference Scenario
700
600
2
Mtoe
500
400
300
200
100
0
Industry Transport Residential Other*
2005 2030
* Includes power generation, other energy sector, services, agriculture and non-energy use.
hydropower also rise, while that of biomass drops. In absolute terms, biomass
use is broadly flat in China, as growing numbers of households – mainly in
rural areas – switch to modern fuels for cooking and heating as they become
richer and the availability of those fuels improves. Biomass consumption
increases by almost a quarter in India, though its share in the residential
energy mix falls with rising use of modern fuels.
The power sector alone accounts for 53% of the increase in primary energy
demand in China over the Outlook period and for just over half in India. Its
share of primary demand reaches 46% in 2030 in China and 45% in India.
The growth in power-sector energy demand would be even faster were it not
for the expected improvement in the thermal efficiency of power stations. Coal
continues to be the dominant fuel input for generation, though it falls from
89% to 84% in China and from 81% to 76% in India (Figure 2.3). In both
countries, power stations remain the main source of air pollution and of
energy-related carbon-dioxide emissions.
Among final sectors, transport sees the fastest growth in energy demand,
though industry is the single biggest contributor to the growth in final energy
demand over the projection period and remains the single largest consumer in
both countries. Road transport – freight and passenger cars – accounts for the
bulk of the increase in transport fuel use (Figure 2.4). As people get richer, their
demand for mobility takes off, especially once average per-capita GDP (in
purchasing power parity terms) reaches a level of between $3 000 and $10 000,
Chapter 2 - Energy Trends in China and India 121