World Energy Outlook 2007

Figure 13.2: Share of the Coastal Region in China’s Economy
and Energy Demand, 2005
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
GDP Exports Coal Oil Gas Electricity
Primary demand
Coastal
Inland
Growth in primary energy demand in the coastal region is projected to slow
markedly over the Outlook period, averaging 3.1% per year (Table 13.3).
It grows by 4.5% per year from 2005 to 2015 and by 2.2% per year from 2015
to 2030. Coal remains the dominant fuel in the coastal energy mix, as it does
nationwide, demand for coal rising by 2.9% per year in 2005-2030. Coal’s
share of total primary energy demand jumps from 66% in 2005 to 70% in
2010, but then drops back to 63% by 2030. The slowing of coal growth
reflects the movement of heavy industry to neighbouring provinces to the west
of the coastal region and an increase in the use of natural gas in the residential
and services sectors. 3
The coastal region’s oil consumption increases by 3.4%, from 4.4 mb/d
in 2005 to 10 mb/d in 2030. More than 80% of the increased demand comes
from the transport sector. By 2030, the coastal region still represents 61%
of national oil consumption, slightly down from 65% in 2005, as oil demand
from the industrial sector grows more slowly than in the inland region to 2015
and actually declines from 2015 to 2030.
3. On 30 August 2007, The National Development and Planning Commission released a policy of natural gas
utilisation, prioritising the residential and services use of natural gas (NDRC, 2007).
408 World Energy Outlook 2007 - CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS