World Energy Outlook 2007

Table 5.1: Energy-Related CO 2
Emissions by Region and Scenario (billion tonnes)
Reference Alternative Policy High Growth
Scenario Scenario Scenario
2005 2015 2030 2015 2030 2015 2030
OECD 12.8 14.1 15.1 13.2 12.5 13.9 14.6
North America 6.7 7.5 8.3 7.2 7.1 7.5 8.1
United States 5.8 6.4 6.9 6.2 6.0 6.3 6.7
Europe 4.0 4.2 4.5 3.8 3.5 4.3 4.4
Pacific 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.1
Transition economies 2.5 3.0 3.2 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.2
Russia 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.0
Developing countries 10.7 16.4 22.9 15.2 17.9 17.4 26.3
China 5.1 8.6 11.4 8.1 8.9 9.5 14.1
India 1.1 1.8 3.3 1.6 2.4 1.9 3.9
Other Asia 1.4 2.0 2.7 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.6
Middle East 1.2 1.8 2.5 1.7 2.0 1.8 2.7
Africa 0.8 1.0 1.4 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.3
Latin America 0.9 1.2 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.6
World* 26.6 34.1 41.9 31.9 33.9 34.9 44.8
European Union 3.9 4.0 4.2 3.6 3.2 4.1 4.2
* Includes emissions from international marine bunkers.
5
Despite the strong increase in emissions in both China and India over the past
few years, their historical share in cumulative emissions, measured over the
period 1900 to 2005, 3 amounted to only 8% for China and 2% for India. By
comparison, the United States and the EU countries combined accounted for
just over half of all cumulative emissions (Figure 5.8). This pattern changes
radically over the Outlook period. In the Reference Scenario China’s share of
cumulative emissions from 1900 to 2030 rises to 16%, approaching that of the
United States (25%) and the European Union (18%). India’s cumulative
emissions (4%) approach those of Japan (4%) (Figure 5.9). In the High
Growth Scenario, China’s cumulative emissions are the same as those of the
European Union by 2030, while India’s exceed those of Japan.
3. Cumulative emissions over a long period provide an indication of a country’s total contribution
to greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The time frame shown here reflects the
availability of data of reasonable accuracy.
Chapter 5 - Global Environmental Repercussions 199