World Energy Outlook 2007

illustrate the magnitude and urgency of the challenge of transforming the
global energy system over the projection period. We have not used the same
modelling tools as those used to prepare the Reference, Alternative Policy
and High Growth Scenario projections. Rather, a backcasting methodology
has been used, which involved identifying a combination of technological
changes that would allow the target to be met, based on the expected
availability of end-use and power-generation technology options and
estimates of potential efficiency gains by sector. In the 450 Stabilisation
Case, cleaner and more advanced technologies are deployed more quickly
than in the Alternative Policy Scenario. In addition, technologies that
are not yet financially viable, including CO 2
capture and storage and
second-generation biofuels technologies, are assumed to be widely deployed.
This case requires that existing energy-using capital would be prematurely
retired, at substantial cost.
Energy and CO 2
Emission Trends
In the 450 Stabilisation Case, global energy-related CO 2
emissions peak in
2012 at around 30 Gt and then decline, reaching the goal of 23 Gt in 2030
(Figure 5.12). Improved efficiency in fossil-fuel use in industry and buildings
accounts for more than a quarter of total avoided CO 2
emissions in 2030,
compared with the Alternative Policy Scenario. Lower electricity demand,
resulting from more efficient electricity use in buildings, represents 13% of the
savings. Switching to second-generation biofuels in transport accounts for 4%
and renewables in the power sector for 19%. Increased reliance on nuclear
generation is responsible for 16%. CO 2
capture and storage (CCS) in power
generation and industry accounts for the remaining 21%. In practice, rapid
deployment of CCS and expansion of nuclear power face major policy and
regulatory hurdles that may take considerable time to resolve (the prospects for
CCS and other types of clean coal technology are discussed below). Clearly,
exceptionally vigorous policy action – entailing substantial costs – would be
needed to make the 450 Stabilisation Case a reality. Such action would need to
start immediately: each year of delay would reduce substantially the likelihood
of achieving the target.
Primary demand reaches 14 031 Mtoe in 2030 – a reduction of about 11%
relative to the Alternative Policy Scenario and 21% relative to the Reference
Scenario (Table 5.5). The saving compared with the Alternative Policy Scenario
is comparable to the current energy demand of OECD Europe. The reduction
in the use of fossil fuels is more marked than the reduction in primary energy
demand, even though fossil fuels still account for two-thirds of primary energy
demand by 2030 (compared with 82% in the Reference Scenario and 76% in
the Alternative Policy Scenario). Coal demand peaks around 2015 and declines
thereafter, reaching in 2030 a level close to that of 2003. Oil demand increases
208 World Energy Outlook 2007 - GLOBAL ENERGY PROSPECTS: IMPACT OF DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA & INDIA