World Energy Outlook 2007

The coastal provinces, with a demand of 1 836 Mtce, produce only
321 Mtce of coal in 2030 in the Reference Scenario. This is an increase
of 28% over 2005 production and may not be easy to achieve. In 2005,
624 Mtce of coal, representing 69% of coastal demand, were transported
from inland provinces to the coastal region. An increasing share of the coal
consumed in the coastal region is expected to come from abroad. By 2030,
68% of coastal coal demand is met by supply from inland provinces and
15% from abroad, with the remaining 17% from the coastal region itself.
The main external coal suppliers in 2015 are Indonesia, Australia, South
Africa and Vietnam. By 2030, Australia and Indonesia are called upon for
still higher exports, while African regions outside South Africa also
contribute to Chinese import requirements.
Coastal oil imports from abroad almost triple, reaching 9 mb/d in 2030.
Oil production in the coast is expected to plateau, creating a need to
import more oil. Imports meet 94% of demand on the coast by 2030. In
2005, offshore production of natural gas in the coastal provinces reached
6.9 bcm, and it is expected to reach 12 bcm in 2030. The coastal region
imported 9.1 bcm, or 57%, of coastal gas demand, from the inland
provinces. The share of imports from inland falls to 15% in 2030 as inland
gas demand grows. To supplement gas produced inland and supplied
through the West-East pipeline, the coastal provinces are planning to boost
LNG imports. Guangdong began LNG imports in 2006 (see Chapter 10).
Fujian has also just completed a terminal that is expected to begin
operation soon. In 2030, the coastal region needs to import around
100 bcm of gas, in the form of LNG or through pipeline gas from
neighbouring countries.
Energy-Related CO 2
Emissions
In 2005, the coastal region’s energy-related carbon-dioxide emissions
represented more than 10% of worldwide emissions, surpassing OECD
Pacific in 2004 and the transition economies in 2005. The coastal region
represents 55% of China’s emissions. From 2000 to 2005, coastal China’s
CO 2
emissions grew at an average annual rate of 13%, faster than the
average for China as a whole of 11%. We project emissions in the coastal
provinces to grow by 5.2% annually to 2015 and 3.3% per year over the
entire Outlook period. The coastal region accounts for 55% of China’s total
emissions in 2030, as it did in 2005. The coast’s per-capita emissions
approach OECD levels by the end of the projection period (Figure 13.10).
418 World Energy Outlook 2007 - CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS