World Energy Outlook 2007

Biomass is the only fuel for which demand is lower in the High Growth
Scenario than in the Reference Scenario, because of fuel-switching
in the residential sector. Higher incomes allow households to afford more
efficient, cleaner fuels for cooking and heating. The use of inefficient dung, fuelwood
and agricultural waste is much lower than in the Reference Scenario
by 2030, particularly in rural households. Hydropower is 6% above
its Reference Scenario level in 2030. Other renewables grow by over 12% per
year on average, but they supply only 1% of primary energy supply by 2030.
Nuclear power supply is 21% higher in the High Growth Scenario.
With higher growth, India is assumed to speed up construction of planned
reactors, under the expectation that financing for nuclear power projects
will be more readily available.
Total final energy consumption in India in the High Growth Scenario grows
at an average annual rate of 3.9%, compared with 3.3% in the Reference
Scenario. The largest increase in demand comes from the transport sector,
mostly because of the rate of increase in the vehicle stock (Box 19.1).
The share of transport in total final consumption increases from 10% in 2005
to 25% in 2030 in the High Growth Scenario, 5 percentage points higher than
in the Reference Scenario (Figure 19.2). In the High Growth Scenario,
oil demand for transport grows by 7.6% per year over the Outlook period,
1.5 percentage points faster than in the Reference Scenario.
Figure 19.2: India’s Final Energy Demand by Sector in the Reference
and High Growth Scenarios
400
300
Mtoe
200
100
0
Industry Transport Residential Other*
2005 2030 Reference Scenario 2030 High Growth Scenario
19
* Includes services, agriculture and non-energy use.
Chapter 19 – High Growth Scenario Projections 563