World Energy Outlook 2007

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Scenario by 28% more in 2030 than in the Reference Scenario. Biofuels, both ethanol and biodiesel, while starting from a very small base, are projected to increase by over 30% per year from 2005 to 2030, compared with 23% in the Reference Scenario. 160 Figure 18.9: Road Transport Energy Use in India in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios (Mtoe) 120 Mtoe 80 40 0 2005 Reference Scenario 2015 Alternative Policy Scenario 2015 Reference Scenario 2030 Alternative Policy Scenario 2030 Oil Gas Biofuels Oil savings in road transport arise from increases in efficiency, plus the faster uptake of advanced vehicle technology through local and foreign partnerships in the automobile industry (Ministry of Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises, 2006). Oil savings also result from a shift towards public transport and from greater use of CNG and biofuels. Biodiesel accounts for 69% of the biofuels in use in India by 2030 (close to the share of diesel in total road-transport fuel use), with ethanol blended into gasoline making up the rest. There is considerable potential for expanding the production and use of biofuels in India, particularly biodiesel from jatropha. Jatropha is a plant that can grow on both good and poor or degraded soils and can produce a good number of seeds even with minimal water. 6 It is not grazed by animals and is highly pest- and disease-resistant. However, biodiesel is not currently consumed in India and there is only limited planting of jatropha. To supply the transport sector with a 5% biodiesel share by 2015, as projected in the Alternative Policy Scenario, 1.2 to 1.4 million hectares of jatropha would be needed; there are 0.4 million hectares 6. Estimates of biodiesel production range between 0.9 tonnes per hectare to 1.6 tonnes per hectare. 550 World Energy Outlook 2007 - INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
Delhi has encountered problems related to growing demand for mobility before the rest of the country, as it has high population density and has experienced rapid population growth. So efforts by the city to address congestion and pollution provide clues about which solutions might work in other cities. The last two decades have seen exponential growth in the vehicle fleet in Delhi, with the total number of registered vehicles recently passing 4 million, of which more than 90% are for personal use. This huge growth has resulted from increased wealth and inefficient and unreliable public transport. The increase in transport demand expected during the Commonwealth Games in 2010 is adding further impetus to efforts to tackle worsening congestion and pollution. Several major policy initiatives have been implemented: The entire public transport fleet, including buses, three-wheeler autorickshaws and taxis, has been converted to CNG. Three lines of the Delhi metro rail system have been built. Inter-state bus terminals, which facilitate inter-state transport and remove excess buses from the centre of Delhi, have been upgraded and expanded. Box 18.4: Delhi Transport Solutions Priority lanes for buses have been introduced, together with preferential signalling for buses at intersections. There were delays in implementing the Delhi CNG law in the first years after its passage, because of a lack of gas supply. Gas for power generation is given priority over CNG during supply disruptions. Growth in the use of CNG over the Outlook period will be held back not by demand, but by supply and infrastructure limitations. planted to date (Singh, 2007). A 5% ethanol blend in gasoline was introduced in 2003 in nine states and four union territories. However as ethanol prices increased, partly because of a decline in sugar production in 2003/04, blending became temporarily optional, and fell to nearly zero. The 5% blend was reimposed nationwide in 2006. Even though this target is mandatory, a lack of ethanol availability has meant that the 5% target has still not been met. Residential and Services Policy Assumptions The tremendous increase in construction activity and the growing importance of electrical equipment and appliances are creating rapid energy-demand growth in the residential and services sectors. The Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) has introduced policies which could lead to substantial reductions in 18 Chapter 18 - Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 551
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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FOREWORD World leaders have pledged
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was pre
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Helen Dickinson Carmen Difiglio Sim
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Tarhan Feyzioğlu John Fu Hu Gao We
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Comments and questions are welcome
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GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS ENERGY TRENDS
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Explaining China’s and India’s
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Oil Resources and Reserves 318 Oil
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16 17 Reference Scenario Demand Pro
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List of Figures Introduction 1. Sha
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3.9 Share of Energy in World Intern
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9.7 International Comparison of Fle
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13.5 Contribution of the Coastal Re
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18.4 India’s CO 2 Emissions in th
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2.2 Sectoral Shares in Final Energy
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11.6 Key Policy Assumptions in Chin
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List of Boxes Introduction 1. Model
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16.5 Kerosene Use in Rural Areas of
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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above current levels in 2030. To ac
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Reference Scenario. In the High Gro
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Reference Scenario, primary energy
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By contrast, faster implementation
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of this increase. China is by far t
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There are large potential gains to
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India are now so big that they are
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of the two giants in international
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second trading period (2008-2012) o
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Table 1: World Population Growth (a
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high (see below). In the longer ter
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Table 3: Fossil-Fuel Price Assumpti
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$41 per tonne to $63 in 2006 (in ye
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In line with last year’s Outlook,
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equilibrium for international trade
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CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
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standards for vehicles and new meas
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Figure 1.2: Increase in World Prima
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Global primary energy intensity, me
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Figure 1.6: Share of Transport in P
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Russia, Central Asia, Latin America
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It is certainly possible that decli
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Table 1.5: World Primary Natural Ga
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developments in clean coal technolo
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in the form of coking coal, grow st
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(Table 1.8). India and China experi
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Table 1.9: Cumulative Investment in
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policy implementation is critical:
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transition economies, because there
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15.1% in 2030, compared with 11.7%
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Table 1.12: World Primary Natural G
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Figure 1.19: Incremental Non-Fossil
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Figure 1.20: Fuel Mix in World Powe
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Table 1.14: World Primary Energy De
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The regional effect on oil imports
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in the Reference Scenario to 1 481
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The High Growth Scenario projection
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Reference Scenario Energy Demand Th
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having rebounded in the early part
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80% Figure 2.3: Fuel Mix in Power G
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SPOTLIGHT Are China and India Follo
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For both China and India, the story
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imports are projected to rise furth
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equires $956 billion of capital spe
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Table 2.4: Primary Energy Demand in
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Figure 2.9: Primary Energy Demand i
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China and India in the Global Econo
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production and exports of manufactu
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International Trade and Financial F
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total coal use in 2005, and the sec
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total stock of Chinese ODI amounted
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fear that Chinese and Indian export
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SPOTLIGHT (continued) In general, e
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Box 3.2: Modelling Economic and Ene
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Table 3.2: Fossil-Fuel Prices in th
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etween 5% and 8% in the High Growth
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Table 3.3: World Real GDP Growth in
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The results presented here should b
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Energy Security in a Global Market
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■ Adequate investment in producti
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efined products are global commodit
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Figure 4.1: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.3: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.4: Oil Export Flows from t
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Table 4.3: Net Natural Gas Imports
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Coal Coal dominates energy use in C
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Energy savings Diversification of f
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In China, oil security has emerged
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deprive the companies of profits an
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western markets. Any disruption to
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2015 and 20% higher in 2030. The ri
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Figure 4.10: Major World Oil Supply
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imports is demonstrated by the Alte
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prices to all consuming countries m
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Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Globa
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In the past two-and-a-half decades,
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Transport contributes roughly a fif
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Box 5.1: Regional Air Quality (Cont
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Box 5.2: Which Countries Emit the M
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egion (Table 5.3 and Figure 5.10).
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Figure 5.11: Change in Carbon Inten
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Table 5.4: CO 2 Concentrations and
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illustrate the magnitude and urgenc
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Energy Demand by Sector CO 2 emissi
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Figure 5.13: Electricity Generation
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The capital costs involved in stabi
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Focus on Prospects for Clean Coal T
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Technologies involving the absorpti
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There are a number of barriers to t
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scheduled to operate in the first h
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CHAPTER 6 ENERGY POLICY RAMIFICATIO
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■ Conserving energy: Conservation
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The results of our Alternative Poli
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increasing need for oil and gas. Th
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Co-operation is a two-way street; I
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Technology Co-operation and Collabo
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continue to make an important contr
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een registered, are being validated
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PART B CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context 1 Established
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percentage points over 2001. 3 In 2
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education. However, the government
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Capital accumulation was boosted by
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several times since the beginning o
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Yet pockets of extreme poverty rema
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year over the projection period, re
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infrastructure, housing and service
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CHAPTER 8 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SE
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In the 1980s and 1990s, energy dema
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Industry has long been the largest
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Figure 8.3: China’s Energy Produc
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Figure 8.4: Organisation of Energy
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Box 8.2: Energy Goals in China’s
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Box 8.3: Coal-Based Alternative Fue
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projects are still the largest alte
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of these businesses. In its early s
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and retail competition, but much wo
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Access to Modern Energy China has a
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CHAPTER 9 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAND
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growth (Table 9.1). It is possible
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Table 9.3: China’s Primary Energy
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with an 89% share in 2005. By 2030,
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exported goods was only 197 Mtoe, o
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energy intensity of 9% in steel pro
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Non-Metallic Minerals The non-metal
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to 7.0% in 2005-2015 and 4.4% in 20
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Box 9.2: Prospects for Alternative
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develop their own-brand vehicles in
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standards are most stringent for he
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nearly one-fifth of the increase in
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in cities is assumed to grow steadi
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Appliance efficiency improvements w
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FGD units installed, along with the
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Table 9.8: Emissions of Major Pollu
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generate almost 1.2 billion CERs by
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CHAPTER 10 REFERENCE SCENARIO SUPPL
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Figure 10.1: China’s Oil and Gas
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Table 10.2: China’s Oil Productio
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Oil Refining China’s refining cap
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Saudi Aramco taking combined stakes
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Box 10.2: China’s Emergency Oil S
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which close to 90% are onshore (Tab
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Table 10.5: China’s Natural Gas P
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e built, because of concerns about
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coal resources lie in the provinces
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Table 10.7: China’s Coal Producti
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of 829 Mt of coal each year by the
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An outside-plan spot market has exi
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Figure 10.13: China’s Hard Coal T
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Figure 10.14: Electricity Generatio
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China is pursuing a dual objective
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Capacity Requirements In the past t
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to consumers approximately 70% of a
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8 Figure 10.17: Plant Generating Co
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undertaken because of its economic
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China designated biofuels as a prio
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could help China achieve its object
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Background and Assumptions China’
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and consumption technologies. By 20
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Reference Scenario. More than two-t
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The most striking difference concer
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The slow-down in the growth of CO 2
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power generation and improving the
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of nuclear power reaches 6% of tota
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educing industrial consumption, eit
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towards gas-based ammonia productio
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Summary of Results In the Alternati
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Table 11.8: Policy Assumptions in C
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improve and appliance ownership inc
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Box 11.2: Cost-Effectiveness of Imp
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Investment in fossil-fuel supply is
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On the other hand, higher economic
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two-thirds of incremental oil deman
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Of the main final sectors, the tran
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Higher international prices also bo
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128 bcm to 216 bcm in 2030. In orde
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generation reaches 7.4 MWh, close t
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Though higher economic growth would
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The magnitude of the region’s imp
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Table 13.1: Economic Indicators by
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Figure 13.2: Share of the Coastal R
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Figure 13.3: Provincial Energy Inte
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incremental final energy demand. Fo
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Industry Industry is today the main
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the population in Beijing having ac
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The coastal provinces, with a deman
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APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 13: CHINA COAST
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PART C INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context India is a fe
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up from 9% in 2005 and 8.3% in 2004
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Assam are on average poorer than ma
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in manufacturing productivity was t
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Economic Challenges Continuation of
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South Asia is the least integrated
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Box 14.2: Special Economic Zones in
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ecently extended into petrochemical
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CHAPTER 15 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY S
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after China and the United States.
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Box 15.1: India's Energy Statistics
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which was created in 1984 to reduce
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■ Electricity Regulatory Commissi
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and production, and in liquefied na
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(because of the captive restriction
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Table 15.3: India's Integrated Ener
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of Finance's Economic Survey 2006-2
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Box 15.3: Public-Private Partnershi
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CHAPTER 16 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAN
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Most energy prices in India are con
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Energy demand in the residential se
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Iron and Steel Industry India’s i
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80%. Past subsidies eliminated ince
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The transport sector currently cons
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Box 16.3: Upside Potential of Trans
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Figure 16.6: Residential Fuel Mix i
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Biomass use in urban households 14
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Kerosene and LPG supply 83% of the
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Other Sectors The services sector a
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from other sources - mainly industr
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Despite improvements in thermal eff
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Oil Supply Resources and Reserves I
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and decline to just under 400 kb/d
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expansions of cracking units. Betwe
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For crude oil alone, India's import
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Figure 17.5: Main Oil and Gas Infra
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Page 504 and 505: Figure 17.7: India's Natural Gas Ba
Page 506 and 507: 98 billion tonnes, principally in J
Page 508 and 509: Table 17.8: Coal Production in Indi
Page 510 and 511: 15 000 Figure 17.9: Coal-Mining Pro
Page 512 and 513: Figure 17.10: India's Coal Producti
Page 514 and 515: India's coal-fired power plants are
Page 516 and 517: Box 17.4: CO 2 Capture and Storage
Page 518 and 519: Box 17.5: India's Nuclear Power Gen
Page 520 and 521: 8 Figure 17.13: Electricity Generat
Page 522 and 523: India receives abundant solar radia
Page 524 and 525: in power generation alone is estima
Page 526 and 527: In 2005, revenues from electricity
Page 528 and 529: Figure 17.17: Electricity Losses by
Page 530 and 531: were shut down. Despite past proble
Page 533 and 534: CHAPTER 18 ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENA
Page 535 and 536: Key Results Energy Demand Primary e
Page 537 and 538: energy demand in the Alternative Po
Page 539 and 540: 18 Figure 18.3: Local Air Pollutant
Page 541 and 542: Box 18.1: The Impacts of Climate Ch
Page 543 and 544: Summary of Results Total electricit
Page 545 and 546: Box 18.2: Performance of India's Co
Page 547 and 548: 1970s hydropower accounted for arou
Page 549 and 550: 35 Figure 18.8: India's Energy Savi
Page 551: to compressed natural gas (CNG), wh
Page 555 and 556: Policy Scenario, it is assumed that
Page 557 and 558: Figure 18.11: Change in Investment
Page 559: tariffs in the services and industr
Page 562 and 563: Background and Assumptions There ar
Page 564 and 565: period by passenger cars, is the ma
Page 566 and 567: Box 19.1: The Vehicle Stock in the
Page 568 and 569: Oil and Gas The production profile
Page 570 and 571: Electricity Electricity generation
Page 572 and 573: in 2030 will still be low, at 2.7 t
Page 574 and 575: and rising emissions of CO 2 , NO x
Page 576 and 577: Outlook for Clean Cooking Fuel and
Page 578 and 579: focus of government policy is to ex
Page 580 and 581: The government has focused many pro
Page 582 and 583: Expanding Access to Electricity in
Page 584 and 585: stoves. According to the World Heal
Page 586 and 587: Subsidies on Kerosene and LPG, and
Page 588 and 589: Uttar Pradesh (4.4 million) and Wes
Page 591: ANNEXES
Page 594 and 595: Reference Scenario: World Energy de
Page 596 and 597: Alternative Policy Scenario: World
Page 598 and 599: Reference Scenario: China Energy de
Page 600 and 601: Alternative Policy Scenario: China
Page 602 and 603:
Reference Scenario: India Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
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Reference Scenario: OECD Energy dem
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific En
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Reference Scenario: Japan Energy de
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Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ene
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Energy d
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Reference Scenario: Developing coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ene
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Reference Scenario: Africa Energy d
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ANNEX B ABBREVIATIONS, DEFINITIONS
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Coal-bed Methane Methane found in c
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Other Renewables Includes geotherma
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international marine bunkers, excep
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Rest of Developing Asia Developing
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IAEA IEA IGCC IMF IOC IPCC IPP LDV
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ANNEX D REFERENCES Introduction Int
Page 651 and 652:
Stevens, C. and J. Kennan (2006), H
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— (2004), World Energy Outlook 20
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International Energy Agency (IEA, 2
Page 657 and 658:
Chew Chong Siang (2006), Current St
Page 659 and 660:
Williams, R. O., A. McKane et al. (
Page 661 and 662:
Garg, A. et al. (2006), “The sect
Page 663 and 664:
Malti, G. (2007), Carbon Capture an
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Pachauri, S. (2007), An Energy Anal
Page 674:
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