World Energy Outlook 2007

Table 11.6: Key Policy Assumptions in China’s Transport Sector in the Alternative Policy Scenario
Measure Description Status Assumption
Phase 1 – maximum fuel consumption standards In force for all
set for 16 weight classes using New European Driving models as
Fuel economy standards
Cycle, more stringent for heavier classes. of July 2006
for LDVs Phase 2 – improvement of 10% Applies to new models
Cars in 2030 40% more
over phase 1. in January 2008,
efficient than current
and to all models in
models
January 2009
Regulation extended
to trucks
Vehicle Sales taxes for cars, SUVs, medium buses ranging from 3% First introduction
taxation to 20% of sale price proportional to engine size. in April 2006
Scrappage Not-for-revenue passenger vehicles to be scrapped Initial phase Cars and trucks are
after 10/15 years. in place scrapped 2 years earlier
For-revenues passenger vehicles to be scrapped after than in the Reference
8/10 years (or 500 000 km). Trucks to be scrapped Scenario
when they reach 10 years (or 400 000 km).
Incentive to Bus Rapid Transit development in major cities including Initial phase
public transport Beijing, Kunming, Shanghai, Tianjin. in place
development and use Subsidy for certain passenger group, e.g. students,
Decrease in private cars
and low pricing.
and trucks use of 5%
Favourable terms to prioritise public transport land use.
in 2030 compared to
Reference Scenario
Fuel taxes Fuel taxes on gasoline and diesel. Under discussion for
implementation before 2010
Alternative fuels Support of CNG subsidies on the natural gas refuelling Initial phase in place Biofuel production reaches
station set-up and land allocation. in several around 20 Mtoe in 2030
municipalities
Biofuels – subsidies for ethanol and biodiesel production. In place for ethanol,
Addition of 2 million tonnes of non-food-grain ethanol under discussion for
in 2010, and 10 million tonnes in 2020. Biodiesel biodiesel
consumption to reach 2 million tonnes in 2020.
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Chapter 11 - Alternative Policy Scenario Projections 379