World Energy Outlook 2007

of nuclear power reaches 6% of total generation in 2030, twice as much as in
the Reference Scenario.
Overall, the share of renewable energy in power generation rises steadily, to
reach 24% of total electricity generation in 2030, in contrast with the Reference
Scenario, where the share of renewables falls from 16% to 15%. The share of
hydropower in electricity generation rises to 17% in 2030, up from 12% in
the Reference Scenario. There are significant increases, too, in other renewables,
notably in wind power and biomass. The increase in renewable energy – other
than hydro – is largely driven by the obligations and incentives contained in the
Renewable Energy Law. The targets and incentives are summarised in
Table 11.3. China is expected to have 311 GW of hydropower in place by 2020,
meeting the government target, and 380 GW in 2030. The target for wind
power is expected to be exceeded, with wind power reaching 42 GW in 2020
and 79 GW in 2030. Similarly, the target for photovoltaics (PV) is also expected
to be surpassed. China is in the process of developing world-class manufacturing
industries for wind turbines and solar PV modules, and this is likely to have a
strong impact on the domestic electricity market. Installed capacity for biomass
is projected to reach 14 GW in 2020, instead of the 30 GW targeted by policy
makers. In 2030, however, biomass capacity could reach 39 GW.
Table 11.3: China’s Renewable Electricity Capacity Targets, GW
Renewable Level in 2010 2020 Potential Pricing policies
source 2005 target target
Hydro 117 190 300 400 No premium pricing
Biomass 2.4 5.5 30 n.a. Feed-in-tariffs
premium
(0.25 yuan/kWh)
Wind 1.3 5 30 300 onshore Competitive
and 700 tendering
offshore
Solar PV 0.07 0.3 1.8 n.a. Feed-in tariffs
based on reasonable
production costs
and profit
Industry
Policy Assumptions and Effects
The Alternative Policy Scenario assumes more stringent implementation of
current Chinese policies to reduce energy consumption in the industrial sector.
The main policies are outlined in Table 11.4. These policies have the effect of
374 World Energy Outlook 2007 - CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS