World Energy Outlook 2007

Energy demand in the residential sector grows at a steady 1.6% per year, while
industrial energy demand growth accelerates from 2.4% in 1990-2005 to 4.1%
in 2005-2030. Electricity use grows at 6.1% per year, resulting in a more than
four-fold increase by 2030. Oil increases by 4.1% annually from 2005 to 2030.
Gas grows also by 4.1%, but its share of final demand in 2030 remains small.
Coal demand rises somewhat more quickly at 4.7% per year. The use of
biomass increases very slowly, by 0.5% per year. Nearly all of this increase takes
place in the rural residential sector. Penetration of biofuels and industrial cogeneration
is low in the Reference Scenario.
100%
Figure 16.2: Sectoral Shares in Final Energy Demand in India
in the Reference Scenario
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2005 2015 2030
Residential
Services
Industry
Non-energy use
Transport
Agriculture
Industry Sector
Energy demand in the industrial sector accounted for 28% of final energy
demand in 2005. Growth in industrial energy demand is projected to
accelerate to 4.7% per year in 2005-2015 and then moderate to 3.7% per year
in 2015-2030, as end-use efficiency improves. Industry’s share of total final
energy demand edges up to 34% in 2030. Energy demand in the iron and
steel, chemical and petrochemicals, non-metallic and other minerals, food,
paper and textile industries together currently represents over half of total
industrial energy demand. These sectors are expected to remain the main
drivers of industrial energy demand over the projection period. Coal, mainly
for steel and cement production, and electricity are expected to remain the
main fuels used in industry over the Outlook period (Figure 16.3).
16
Chapter 16 – Reference Scenario Demand Projections 467