World Energy Outlook 2007

Table 9.2: Energy Intensity in Selected Power-Generation Technologies
and End-Use Sectors in the Reference Scenario
(Index, 2005 = 100)
2015 2030
Power generation Coal-fired heat rate 95 85
CCGT heat rate 96 86
Industry Iron and steel toe per tonne 93 86
Cement toe per tonne 88 83
Transport Cars l/100km 86 68
It should also be remembered that China’s energy consumption per person is
still low: 1.3 tonnes of oil equivalent in 2005. This is only about three-quarters
of the world average, and 28% of that of OECD countries. Because of the huge
population, a small change in per-capita consumption means very large
volumetric changes.
Included in this year’s World Energy Outlook is a special analysis of current
and future energy trends in the coastal region of China (see Chapter 13).
The coastal region has been and will continue to be the main driver of
energy use in China, so its role in China’s energy future is of particular
interest.
Primary Energy Demand
In the Reference Scenario, China’s primary energy demand is projected to
register an average annual growth rate of 5.1% between 2005 and 2015 and
of 3.2% over the period 2005 to 2030 as a whole. That will take China’s
energy demand from 1 742 Mtoe in 2005 to 2 851 Mtoe in 2015 and
3 819 Mtoe in 2030 (Table 9.3). Without biomass, primary demand grows
from 1 515 Mtoe in 2005 to 3 592 Mtoe in 2030. The growth rate of
3.2% over the entire projection period is slower than the 4.3% per year seen
between 1980 and 2005. China’s energy intensity continues to decline very
rapidly, by 2.6% per year between 2005 and 2030. The Chinese
government has adopted a number of policies to meet the target of the 11 th
Five-Year Plan of reducing energy intensity by 20% by 2010 compared with
2005 (see Chapter 8). While energy intensity has begun to fall, preliminary
estimates for 2006 show that the intensity improvement in that year fell
short of the required trajectory (Box 9.1).
286 World Energy Outlook 2007 - CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS