World Energy Outlook 2007

imports are projected to rise further, to 52 Mtce (54 Mt) in 2015 and
139 Mtce (151 Mt) in 2030; coking coal imports are projected to rise more
slowly.
Coal-import needs in both China and India are inevitably very uncertain.
Because the volume of imports projected is small relative to demand (especially
in China), marginally faster or slower demand or output growth rates would
have a big impact on the volume and direction of trade. For example, a slowdown
in production growth of just 1 percentage point per year than projected
here – possibly resulting from slower reform of the mining industry – would
increase China’s imports in 2030 eight-fold and India’s by 56%. Faster demand
growth would have a similar effect (see High Growth Scenario below). The
increase in imports would be very large relative to total world hard coal trade
(see Chapter 4).
Non-Fossil Energy Sources
The Chinese and Indian governments plan to expand significantly the role of
nuclear power and modern renewable energy technologies. In the Reference
Scenario, the share of nuclear in electricity generation in China is projected to
rise from 2.1% in 2005 to 3% in 2030, with capacity jumping from under
7 GW to 31 GW. This capacity nonetheless falls 9 GW short of the
government’s target, which is ambitious in view of the long construction times
and current global bottlenecks in nuclear component manufacturing. All new
nuclear power plants are expected to be built in coastal areas. Hydropower
capacity also increases, though its share of primary demand and electricity
generation declines. Total biomass consumption remains broadly unchanged
through to 2030, but its utilisation pattern changes considerably. Traditional
biomass consumption, mainly for household cooking and heating, declines,
but biomass to fuel power plants and to make biofuels for transport increases.
The supply of energy from other renewable sources increases rapidly, but from
a very low base. Wind-power capacity is projected to climb from a little over
1 GW in 2005 to 49 GW in 2030, accounting for 1.6% of China’s total
electricity supply. Solar thermal and photovoltaic energy supply is also
projected to grow strongly.
In India, nuclear power capacity is projected to surge from 3 GW in 2005 to
17 GW by 2030, with the share of nuclear power in electricity generation
rising from 2.5% in 2005 to 4.6% in 2030. Nonetheless, this is well below the
rate of increase targeted by the government, as difficulties in building nuclear
power plants, including high construction costs and problems in gaining access
to technology and materials are expected to persist into the future. Energy from
renewable sources in total expands slowly, with traditional biomass continuing
to dominate consumption. Hydropower output more than doubles, yet its
share of power generation falls from 14% in 2005 to 9% in 2030. Demand for
128 World Energy Outlook 2007 - GLOBAL ENERGY PROSPECTS: IMPACT OF DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA & INDIA