World Energy Outlook 2007

Oil plays a minor role in electricity generation, accounting for just over 4%
of total output in 2005. Diesel is the main oil product used in this
application. In practice, diesel use for power is higher than reported, as the
statistics do not include the fuel used in the stand-by generators which are in
widespread use in buildings in India to cope with power cuts. Some fuel oil
is used in power stations and small amounts of naphtha are also used where
gas is not available. Over the projection period, oil-based electricity
generation is expected to remain roughly at current levels, as switching to gas
progresses. The share of oil is projected to fall to 1% of total generation in
2030.
Nuclear power accounted for 2.5% of total electricity generation in 2005,
when installed nuclear power capacity was 3 GW. This rose to 3.6 GW in
2006, with the connection to the grid of Tarapur-3. One unit at Kaiga was
connected to the grid in April 2007 and three more units are expected to be
connected to the grid by the end of 2007. Three additional units, of which one
is a fast-breeder reactor, are under construction. The Indian government's
nuclear power generation programme is ambitious (Box 17.5). The current
target is to raise nuclear power generation capacity to 20 GW by 2020 and to
40 GW by 2030. Earlier targets, such as the target set in the 1984 Nuclear
Power Profile of 10 GW by 2000, have not been met (IEA, 2006). Installed
capacity in 2000 was only a quarter of that target. The programme seems to
have accelerated now.
Box 17.5: India's Nuclear Power Generation Programme
India's nuclear power generation programme started with the construction
of two boiling water reactors (BWRs) at Tarapur in the 1960s. India was the
first developing country to have nuclear power plants. The BWR units were
built by the General Electric Company and Bechtel. Atomic Energy of
Canada, Ltd. built two pressurised heavy water reactors (PHWRs) in
Rajasthan. India subsequently developed its own technology, based on
PHWR technology.
India has modest uranium resources, about 1.4% of the world's reasonably
assured and inferred resources (NEA/IAEA, 2006). It has vast thorium
resources. On the basis of these resources and in an attempt to overcome its
relative isolation in international trade (as it has not joined the Non-
Proliferation Treaty), India has drawn up a three-stage nuclear programme.
The first stage involves the development of mainly domestic-built PHWRs,
although two Russian VVERs are also under construction. It also has plans
to build other light water reactors (LWRs), depending on access to
international markets.
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Chapter 17 - Reference Scenario Supply Projections 515