World Energy Outlook 2007

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Unreliable power damages business and has a high cost for power-intensive and continuous-process industries in particular. Unscheduled power cuts also cause considerable inconvenience to households. Poor reliability has led some consumers to instal generators as a backup. In Delhi, for example, demand for generators, inverters and batteries is increasing by an estimated 20%-25% per year. 8 As in many developing countries, the distribution sector in India is the weakest part of the power-supply chain. Losses of electricity due to theft and technical factors remain stubbornly high, averaging around 32% to 35% of total generation. They are even much higher in some states. Allowing also for poor bill collection, around 40% to 60% of total potential revenue is lost, depending on the state. The central and state authorities have made some progress recently in improving payment discipline, reforming the regulatory framework and strengthening efforts to improve the financial performance of the SEBs and other publicly-owned power companies to reduce their financial losses. Energy Administration and Policy Responsibilities for policy making and implementation in the energy sector are split between five different ministries and several government commissions and agencies (Figure 15.2). The Planning Commission is responsible for assessing energy, capital and human resources in the country, formulating plans for their effective utilisation and appraising progress in meeting targets. Its main function is to formulate India's five-year plans (see Box 14.1 in Chapter 14). Due to administrative bottlenecks and overambitious expectations regarding GDP growth and energy capacity additions, targets are rarely met in practice. The development and administration of energy policy lies with the various federal ministries and departments: ■ The Ministry of Power is concerned with long-term power-sector planning, policy formulation, assigning investment priorities, monitoring the implementation of power projects, training and manpower development, and the enactment and implementation of legislation with regard to thermal and hydropower generation, transmission and distribution. It liaises within the central government, with the SEBs and with the private sector. The Bureau for Energy Efficiency (BEE) is a statutory body under the Ministry of Power, set up under the Energy Conservation Law 2001, to co-ordinate energy efficiency and conservation policies and programmes. The Central 8. According to information from the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India, available at www.assocham.org. 450 World Energy Outlook 2007 - INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
■ Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) is responsible for regulating all activities related to power at the central and interstate level. Its responsibilities include managing electricity trading, regulating interstate transmission and tariffs, generating the tariffs of central utilities and regulating transmission lines. State Electricity Regulatory Commissions (SERCs) deal with licensing, tariffs and competitive issues within each state. The Ministry of Coal has overall responsibility for determining policies and strategies with respect to the exploration and development of coal reserves. It also supervises Coal India and its subsidiaries, as well as Neyveli Lignite Corporation. Figure 15.2: Energy Policy Administration in India's Energy Sector Government of India Planning Commission Ministry of Power Ministry of Coal Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas Ministry of New and Renewable Energy Department of Atomic Energy 6 PSUs, CEA & BEE 3 PSUs 15 PSUs, PPAC, DGH & PCRA 1 PSU & several research institutes 1 PSU & several research institutes Note: PSU: public sector undertaking; CEA: Central Electricity Authority; BEE: Bureau of Energy Efficiency; PPAC: Petroleum Policy and Analysis Cell; DGH: Directorate General for Hydrocarbons; PCRA: Petroleum Conservation and Research Association. 15 ■ ■ The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas oversees the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, their refining, distribution and marketing, and the import, export and conservation of petroleum products and liquefied natural gas. It also has responsibility for development and implementation of pricing policy and for supervising the marketing of biofuels. The Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board was established in 2006 to set regulations for LNG terminals, refining, transmission and retailing. The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy is responsible for carrying out a national programme to increase wind, small hydro and biomass-based power-generation capacity. It aims to expand the use of renewable energy in Chapter 15 - Overview of the Energy Sector 451
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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FOREWORD World leaders have pledged
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was pre
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Helen Dickinson Carmen Difiglio Sim
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Tarhan Feyzioğlu John Fu Hu Gao We
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Comments and questions are welcome
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GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS ENERGY TRENDS
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Explaining China’s and India’s
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Oil Resources and Reserves 318 Oil
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16 17 Reference Scenario Demand Pro
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List of Figures Introduction 1. Sha
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3.9 Share of Energy in World Intern
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9.7 International Comparison of Fle
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13.5 Contribution of the Coastal Re
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18.4 India’s CO 2 Emissions in th
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2.2 Sectoral Shares in Final Energy
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11.6 Key Policy Assumptions in Chin
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List of Boxes Introduction 1. Model
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16.5 Kerosene Use in Rural Areas of
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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above current levels in 2030. To ac
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Reference Scenario. In the High Gro
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Reference Scenario, primary energy
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By contrast, faster implementation
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of this increase. China is by far t
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There are large potential gains to
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India are now so big that they are
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of the two giants in international
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second trading period (2008-2012) o
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Table 1: World Population Growth (a
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high (see below). In the longer ter
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Table 3: Fossil-Fuel Price Assumpti
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$41 per tonne to $63 in 2006 (in ye
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In line with last year’s Outlook,
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equilibrium for international trade
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CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
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standards for vehicles and new meas
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Figure 1.2: Increase in World Prima
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Global primary energy intensity, me
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Figure 1.6: Share of Transport in P
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Russia, Central Asia, Latin America
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It is certainly possible that decli
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Table 1.5: World Primary Natural Ga
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developments in clean coal technolo
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in the form of coking coal, grow st
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(Table 1.8). India and China experi
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Table 1.9: Cumulative Investment in
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policy implementation is critical:
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transition economies, because there
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15.1% in 2030, compared with 11.7%
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Table 1.12: World Primary Natural G
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Figure 1.19: Incremental Non-Fossil
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Figure 1.20: Fuel Mix in World Powe
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Table 1.14: World Primary Energy De
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The regional effect on oil imports
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in the Reference Scenario to 1 481
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The High Growth Scenario projection
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Reference Scenario Energy Demand Th
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having rebounded in the early part
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80% Figure 2.3: Fuel Mix in Power G
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SPOTLIGHT Are China and India Follo
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For both China and India, the story
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imports are projected to rise furth
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equires $956 billion of capital spe
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Table 2.4: Primary Energy Demand in
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Figure 2.9: Primary Energy Demand i
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China and India in the Global Econo
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production and exports of manufactu
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International Trade and Financial F
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total coal use in 2005, and the sec
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total stock of Chinese ODI amounted
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fear that Chinese and Indian export
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SPOTLIGHT (continued) In general, e
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Box 3.2: Modelling Economic and Ene
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Table 3.2: Fossil-Fuel Prices in th
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etween 5% and 8% in the High Growth
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Table 3.3: World Real GDP Growth in
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The results presented here should b
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Energy Security in a Global Market
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■ Adequate investment in producti
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efined products are global commodit
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Figure 4.1: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.3: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.4: Oil Export Flows from t
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Table 4.3: Net Natural Gas Imports
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Coal Coal dominates energy use in C
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Energy savings Diversification of f
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In China, oil security has emerged
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deprive the companies of profits an
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western markets. Any disruption to
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2015 and 20% higher in 2030. The ri
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Figure 4.10: Major World Oil Supply
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imports is demonstrated by the Alte
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prices to all consuming countries m
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Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Globa
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In the past two-and-a-half decades,
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Transport contributes roughly a fif
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Box 5.1: Regional Air Quality (Cont
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Box 5.2: Which Countries Emit the M
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egion (Table 5.3 and Figure 5.10).
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Figure 5.11: Change in Carbon Inten
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Table 5.4: CO 2 Concentrations and
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illustrate the magnitude and urgenc
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Energy Demand by Sector CO 2 emissi
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Figure 5.13: Electricity Generation
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The capital costs involved in stabi
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Focus on Prospects for Clean Coal T
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Technologies involving the absorpti
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There are a number of barriers to t
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scheduled to operate in the first h
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CHAPTER 6 ENERGY POLICY RAMIFICATIO
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■ Conserving energy: Conservation
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The results of our Alternative Poli
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increasing need for oil and gas. Th
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Co-operation is a two-way street; I
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Technology Co-operation and Collabo
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continue to make an important contr
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een registered, are being validated
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PART B CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context 1 Established
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percentage points over 2001. 3 In 2
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education. However, the government
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Capital accumulation was boosted by
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several times since the beginning o
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Yet pockets of extreme poverty rema
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year over the projection period, re
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infrastructure, housing and service
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CHAPTER 8 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SE
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In the 1980s and 1990s, energy dema
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Industry has long been the largest
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Figure 8.3: China’s Energy Produc
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Figure 8.4: Organisation of Energy
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Box 8.2: Energy Goals in China’s
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Box 8.3: Coal-Based Alternative Fue
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projects are still the largest alte
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of these businesses. In its early s
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and retail competition, but much wo
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Access to Modern Energy China has a
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CHAPTER 9 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAND
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growth (Table 9.1). It is possible
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Table 9.3: China’s Primary Energy
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with an 89% share in 2005. By 2030,
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exported goods was only 197 Mtoe, o
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energy intensity of 9% in steel pro
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Non-Metallic Minerals The non-metal
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to 7.0% in 2005-2015 and 4.4% in 20
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Box 9.2: Prospects for Alternative
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develop their own-brand vehicles in
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standards are most stringent for he
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nearly one-fifth of the increase in
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in cities is assumed to grow steadi
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Appliance efficiency improvements w
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FGD units installed, along with the
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Table 9.8: Emissions of Major Pollu
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generate almost 1.2 billion CERs by
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CHAPTER 10 REFERENCE SCENARIO SUPPL
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Figure 10.1: China’s Oil and Gas
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Table 10.2: China’s Oil Productio
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Oil Refining China’s refining cap
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Saudi Aramco taking combined stakes
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Box 10.2: China’s Emergency Oil S
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which close to 90% are onshore (Tab
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Table 10.5: China’s Natural Gas P
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e built, because of concerns about
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coal resources lie in the provinces
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Table 10.7: China’s Coal Producti
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of 829 Mt of coal each year by the
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An outside-plan spot market has exi
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Figure 10.13: China’s Hard Coal T
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Figure 10.14: Electricity Generatio
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China is pursuing a dual objective
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Capacity Requirements In the past t
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to consumers approximately 70% of a
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8 Figure 10.17: Plant Generating Co
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undertaken because of its economic
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China designated biofuels as a prio
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could help China achieve its object
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Background and Assumptions China’
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and consumption technologies. By 20
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Reference Scenario. More than two-t
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The most striking difference concer
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The slow-down in the growth of CO 2
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power generation and improving the
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of nuclear power reaches 6% of tota
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educing industrial consumption, eit
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towards gas-based ammonia productio
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Summary of Results In the Alternati
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Table 11.8: Policy Assumptions in C
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improve and appliance ownership inc
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Box 11.2: Cost-Effectiveness of Imp
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Investment in fossil-fuel supply is
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On the other hand, higher economic
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two-thirds of incremental oil deman
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Of the main final sectors, the tran
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Higher international prices also bo
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128 bcm to 216 bcm in 2030. In orde
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Page 404 and 405: Though higher economic growth would
Page 406 and 407: The magnitude of the region’s imp
Page 408 and 409: Table 13.1: Economic Indicators by
Page 410 and 411: Figure 13.2: Share of the Coastal R
Page 412 and 413: Figure 13.3: Provincial Energy Inte
Page 414 and 415: incremental final energy demand. Fo
Page 416 and 417: Industry Industry is today the main
Page 418 and 419: the population in Beijing having ac
Page 420 and 421: The coastal provinces, with a deman
Page 422 and 423: APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 13: CHINA COAST
Page 425: PART C INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
Page 428 and 429: The Political Context India is a fe
Page 430 and 431: up from 9% in 2005 and 8.3% in 2004
Page 432 and 433: Assam are on average poorer than ma
Page 434 and 435: in manufacturing productivity was t
Page 436 and 437: Economic Challenges Continuation of
Page 438 and 439: South Asia is the least integrated
Page 440 and 441: Box 14.2: Special Economic Zones in
Page 442 and 443: ecently extended into petrochemical
Page 445 and 446: CHAPTER 15 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY S
Page 447 and 448: after China and the United States.
Page 449 and 450: Box 15.1: India's Energy Statistics
Page 451: which was created in 1984 to reduce
Page 455 and 456: and production, and in liquefied na
Page 457 and 458: (because of the captive restriction
Page 459 and 460: Table 15.3: India's Integrated Ener
Page 461 and 462: of Finance's Economic Survey 2006-2
Page 463 and 464: Box 15.3: Public-Private Partnershi
Page 465 and 466: CHAPTER 16 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAN
Page 467 and 468: Most energy prices in India are con
Page 469 and 470: Energy demand in the residential se
Page 471 and 472: Iron and Steel Industry India’s i
Page 473 and 474: 80%. Past subsidies eliminated ince
Page 475 and 476: The transport sector currently cons
Page 477 and 478: Box 16.3: Upside Potential of Trans
Page 479 and 480: Figure 16.6: Residential Fuel Mix i
Page 481 and 482: Biomass use in urban households 14
Page 483 and 484: Kerosene and LPG supply 83% of the
Page 485 and 486: Other Sectors The services sector a
Page 487 and 488: from other sources - mainly industr
Page 489: Despite improvements in thermal eff
Page 492 and 493: Oil Supply Resources and Reserves I
Page 494 and 495: and decline to just under 400 kb/d
Page 496 and 497: expansions of cracking units. Betwe
Page 498 and 499: For crude oil alone, India's import
Page 500 and 501: Figure 17.5: Main Oil and Gas Infra
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come from offshore non-associated g
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Figure 17.7: India's Natural Gas Ba
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98 billion tonnes, principally in J
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Table 17.8: Coal Production in Indi
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15 000 Figure 17.9: Coal-Mining Pro
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Figure 17.10: India's Coal Producti
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India's coal-fired power plants are
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Box 17.4: CO 2 Capture and Storage
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Box 17.5: India's Nuclear Power Gen
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8 Figure 17.13: Electricity Generat
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India receives abundant solar radia
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in power generation alone is estima
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In 2005, revenues from electricity
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Figure 17.17: Electricity Losses by
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were shut down. Despite past proble
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CHAPTER 18 ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENA
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Key Results Energy Demand Primary e
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energy demand in the Alternative Po
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18 Figure 18.3: Local Air Pollutant
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Box 18.1: The Impacts of Climate Ch
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Summary of Results Total electricit
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Box 18.2: Performance of India's Co
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1970s hydropower accounted for arou
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35 Figure 18.8: India's Energy Savi
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to compressed natural gas (CNG), wh
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Delhi has encountered problems rela
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Policy Scenario, it is assumed that
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Figure 18.11: Change in Investment
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tariffs in the services and industr
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Background and Assumptions There ar
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period by passenger cars, is the ma
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Box 19.1: The Vehicle Stock in the
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Oil and Gas The production profile
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Electricity Electricity generation
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in 2030 will still be low, at 2.7 t
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and rising emissions of CO 2 , NO x
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Outlook for Clean Cooking Fuel and
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focus of government policy is to ex
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The government has focused many pro
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Expanding Access to Electricity in
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stoves. According to the World Heal
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Subsidies on Kerosene and LPG, and
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Uttar Pradesh (4.4 million) and Wes
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ANNEXES
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Reference Scenario: World Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: World
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Reference Scenario: China Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Reference Scenario: India Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
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Reference Scenario: OECD Energy dem
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
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Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific En
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Reference Scenario: Japan Energy de
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Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ene
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Energy d
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Reference Scenario: Developing coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ene
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Reference Scenario: Africa Energy d
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ANNEX B ABBREVIATIONS, DEFINITIONS
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Coal-bed Methane Methane found in c
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Other Renewables Includes geotherma
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international marine bunkers, excep
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Rest of Developing Asia Developing
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IAEA IEA IGCC IMF IOC IPCC IPP LDV
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ANNEX D REFERENCES Introduction Int
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Stevens, C. and J. Kennan (2006), H
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— (2004), World Energy Outlook 20
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International Energy Agency (IEA, 2
Page 657 and 658:
Chew Chong Siang (2006), Current St
Page 659 and 660:
Williams, R. O., A. McKane et al. (
Page 661 and 662:
Garg, A. et al. (2006), “The sect
Page 663 and 664:
Malti, G. (2007), Carbon Capture an
Page 665:
Pachauri, S. (2007), An Energy Anal
Page 674:
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