World Energy Outlook 2007

Box 5.2: Which Countries Emit the Most CO 2
?
The world’s top five CO 2
emitting countries – the United States, China,
Russia, Japan and India – currently account for 55% of global energyrelated
CO 2
emissions. By 2030, that share rises to 59% in the Reference
and Alternative Policy Scenarios and 62% in the High Growth Scenario.
Those countries remain the top five emitters, but their relative position
changes (Table 5.2) – the same way in each scenario. According to
preliminary fuel consumption data released by the US Energy
Information Administration and by the Chinese National Bureau of
Statistics, US emissions fell slightly to 5.7 gigatonnes (billion tonnes) in
2006, while Chinese emissions jumped by 9.4% to 5.6 Gt. On these
trends, China will overtake the United States in 2007. The gap between
the emissions of China and the United States widens progressively over
the Outlook period in all three scenarios. China’s emissions are 35% larger
than those of the United States in 2015 and 66% bigger in 2030 in the
Reference Scenario. India rises from fifth- to third-largest emitter by
2015, overtaking Japan and Russia. For comparison purposes, emissions
by all EU countries combined rise from 3.9 Gt in 2005 to 4.2 Gt in 2030,
still bigger than India’s yet smaller than those of China and the United
States.
Table 5.2: Top Five Countries for Energy-Related CO 2
Emissions
in the Reference Scenario
2005 2015 2030
Gt rank Gt rank Gt rank
US 5.8 1 6.4 2 6.9 2 =
China 5.1 2 8.6 1 11.4 1 =
Russia 1.5 3 1.8 4 2.0 4 =
Japan 1.2 4 1.3 5 1.2 5 =
India 1.1 5 1.8 3 3.3 3 =
→
→
→ →
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China’s per-capita emissions are projected to approach those of OECD Europe
by the end of the projection period in the Reference Scenario. But China’s
per-capita emissions are less than half those of the United States and about
two-thirds those of the OECD as a whole in the Reference Scenario. In India,
they remain far lower than those of both OECD countries and the transition
economies in 2030, even though they grow faster than in almost any other
200 World Energy Outlook 2007 - GLOBAL ENERGY PROSPECTS: IMPACT OF DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA & INDIA