World Energy Outlook 2007

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Oil Production 3 Oil production in China was 3.7 mb/d in 2006, of which about 90% was onshore. Output, which was flat last year after gaining about 0.5 mb/d since the beginning of the decade, is concentrated in seven complexes, composed of several neighbouring fields. Most of them are more than 50% depleted. The remaining part of domestic production is therefore fragmented between many small to medium-size fields. The biggest 11 fields, out of a national total of 492 in production, contribute close to half. Production at only one of them, Tahe, has not yet peaked. About half of proven and probable reserves from known fields have been produced. In the Reference Scenario, China’s conventional oil production is projected to increase marginally, levelling off at about 3.9 mb/d in 2012 and then declining gradually to 2.7 mb/d in 2030 (Table 10.2), as the largest existing producing fields become almost completely depleted. 4 About one-quarter of China’s production by the end of the Outlook period is expected to come from fields discovered recently and awaiting development. The Jidong Nanpu field is expected to contribute a significant share, on average 7% of conventional oil production, though the figure is very uncertain, as reserves have not yet been fully assessed. On the basis of partial information, we assume that production will start in 2012 and will reach an average of about 270 kb/d following the build-up phase, with a peak at about 300 kb/d before starting to decline to about 200 kb/d by 2030. 5 The projected fall in crude oil production is offset to a large degree by increased production from non-conventional sources – notably coal-to-liquids (CTL) plants. The first such plant, being built by Shenhua, is expected to come on stream in 2008. We project that CTL production will reach 250 kb/d in 2020 and 750 kb/d in 2030. The recent increase in oil prices has made CTL production a profitable option. It is expected to be a particularly attractive technology in China because of the availability of cheap local coal (see Chapter 8 on Chinese policy for CTL development). 6 3. Crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and condensates. 4. These projections are derived from a bottom-up assessment of the top 11 producing fields in 2006 and new oilfield developments in the coming years and from a top-down analysis of longer-term development prospects. 5. In the absence of any further information on geology, this is based on 7 billion barrels in place, estimated ultimately recoverable resources of around 2.8 billion barrels and a 40% recovery factor using primary recovery techniques. 6. The Chinese government has recently expressed doubts about the feasibility of achieving ambitious plans for CTL production, mainly because of uncertainty about production costs, the magnitude of coal imports and the environmental impact, including that on water resources. See the Spotlight in Chapter 11. 320 World Energy Outlook 2007 - CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
Table 10.2: China’s Oil Production in the Reference Scenario (kb/d) 2006 2015 2030 Producing fields 915 448 170 Saertu (Daqing) 348 155 40 Xingshugang (Daqing) 131 69 23 Lamadian (Daqing) 64 22 4 Karamay Complex 104 51 15 Tahe Complex 94 73 48 Huanxiling (Liaohe Depression) 15 1 0 Shuguang (Liaohe Depression) 40 16 4 Suizhong 36-1 28 2 0 Ansai 45 32 18 Xijiang 30-2 9 0 0 Chengdao (Shengli) 36 28 18 Other fields and developments Discovered fields to be developed – 989 738 Of which Jidong Nanpu field – 284 200 Other currently producing fields, new discoveries and reserve additions 2 759 2 403 1 792 Non-conventional oil (CTL) – 184 750 Total oil production * 3 674 4 024 3 450 * Including condensates and NGLs. Sources: IHS Energy databases; IEA analysis. 10 Our projections are inevitably subject to a number of uncertainties. The large number of fields currently undergoing appraisal (126) and development (33) means that the average delay between a field being discovered and being brought into production is likely to be longer than was the case in the recent past (typically around seven years). In the Reference Scenario, we assume that only 30 fields can realistically be brought on stream in any given year. In practice, slippage caused by rising upstream costs and a shortage of available rigs may lead to even longer delays, slowing the rise in production in the early part of the projection period. Recovery factors may also turn out to be higher or lower than assumed in our analysis. In particular, the adoption of the latest improved and enhanced recovery techniques could result in higher levels of output from both existing and new fields. All Chinese companies have invited international companies to participate in several of their most complex developments, so they have been Chapter 10 - Reference Scenario Supply Projections 321
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY WORLD E
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FOREWORD World leaders have pledged
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was pre
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Helen Dickinson Carmen Difiglio Sim
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Tarhan Feyzioğlu John Fu Hu Gao We
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Comments and questions are welcome
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GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS ENERGY TRENDS
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Explaining China’s and India’s
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Oil Resources and Reserves 318 Oil
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16 17 Reference Scenario Demand Pro
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List of Figures Introduction 1. Sha
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3.9 Share of Energy in World Intern
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9.7 International Comparison of Fle
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13.5 Contribution of the Coastal Re
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18.4 India’s CO 2 Emissions in th
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2.2 Sectoral Shares in Final Energy
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11.6 Key Policy Assumptions in Chin
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List of Boxes Introduction 1. Model
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16.5 Kerosene Use in Rural Areas of
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World Energy Outlook Series World E
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above current levels in 2030. To ac
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Reference Scenario. In the High Gro
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Reference Scenario, primary energy
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By contrast, faster implementation
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of this increase. China is by far t
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There are large potential gains to
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India are now so big that they are
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of the two giants in international
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second trading period (2008-2012) o
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Table 1: World Population Growth (a
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high (see below). In the longer ter
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Table 3: Fossil-Fuel Price Assumpti
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$41 per tonne to $63 in 2006 (in ye
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In line with last year’s Outlook,
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equilibrium for international trade
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CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS
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standards for vehicles and new meas
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Figure 1.2: Increase in World Prima
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Global primary energy intensity, me
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Figure 1.6: Share of Transport in P
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Russia, Central Asia, Latin America
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It is certainly possible that decli
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Table 1.5: World Primary Natural Ga
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developments in clean coal technolo
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in the form of coking coal, grow st
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(Table 1.8). India and China experi
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Table 1.9: Cumulative Investment in
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policy implementation is critical:
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transition economies, because there
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15.1% in 2030, compared with 11.7%
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Table 1.12: World Primary Natural G
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Figure 1.19: Incremental Non-Fossil
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Figure 1.20: Fuel Mix in World Powe
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Table 1.14: World Primary Energy De
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The regional effect on oil imports
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in the Reference Scenario to 1 481
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The High Growth Scenario projection
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Reference Scenario Energy Demand Th
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having rebounded in the early part
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80% Figure 2.3: Fuel Mix in Power G
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SPOTLIGHT Are China and India Follo
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For both China and India, the story
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imports are projected to rise furth
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equires $956 billion of capital spe
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Table 2.4: Primary Energy Demand in
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Figure 2.9: Primary Energy Demand i
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China and India in the Global Econo
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production and exports of manufactu
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International Trade and Financial F
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total coal use in 2005, and the sec
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total stock of Chinese ODI amounted
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fear that Chinese and Indian export
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SPOTLIGHT (continued) In general, e
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Box 3.2: Modelling Economic and Ene
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Table 3.2: Fossil-Fuel Prices in th
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etween 5% and 8% in the High Growth
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Table 3.3: World Real GDP Growth in
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The results presented here should b
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Energy Security in a Global Market
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■ Adequate investment in producti
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efined products are global commodit
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Figure 4.1: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.3: Share of China and Indi
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Figure 4.4: Oil Export Flows from t
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Table 4.3: Net Natural Gas Imports
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Coal Coal dominates energy use in C
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Energy savings Diversification of f
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In China, oil security has emerged
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deprive the companies of profits an
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western markets. Any disruption to
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2015 and 20% higher in 2030. The ri
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Figure 4.10: Major World Oil Supply
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imports is demonstrated by the Alte
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prices to all consuming countries m
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Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Globa
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In the past two-and-a-half decades,
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Transport contributes roughly a fif
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Box 5.1: Regional Air Quality (Cont
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Box 5.2: Which Countries Emit the M
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egion (Table 5.3 and Figure 5.10).
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Figure 5.11: Change in Carbon Inten
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Table 5.4: CO 2 Concentrations and
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illustrate the magnitude and urgenc
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Energy Demand by Sector CO 2 emissi
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Figure 5.13: Electricity Generation
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The capital costs involved in stabi
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Focus on Prospects for Clean Coal T
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Technologies involving the absorpti
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There are a number of barriers to t
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scheduled to operate in the first h
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CHAPTER 6 ENERGY POLICY RAMIFICATIO
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■ Conserving energy: Conservation
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The results of our Alternative Poli
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increasing need for oil and gas. Th
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Co-operation is a two-way street; I
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Technology Co-operation and Collabo
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continue to make an important contr
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een registered, are being validated
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PART B CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context 1 Established
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percentage points over 2001. 3 In 2
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education. However, the government
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Capital accumulation was boosted by
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several times since the beginning o
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Yet pockets of extreme poverty rema
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year over the projection period, re
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infrastructure, housing and service
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CHAPTER 8 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY SE
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In the 1980s and 1990s, energy dema
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Industry has long been the largest
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Figure 8.3: China’s Energy Produc
Page 271 and 272: Figure 8.4: Organisation of Energy
Page 273 and 274: Box 8.2: Energy Goals in China’s
Page 275 and 276: Box 8.3: Coal-Based Alternative Fue
Page 277 and 278: projects are still the largest alte
Page 279 and 280: of these businesses. In its early s
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Page 283 and 284: Access to Modern Energy China has a
Page 285 and 286: CHAPTER 9 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAND
Page 287 and 288: growth (Table 9.1). It is possible
Page 289 and 290: Table 9.3: China’s Primary Energy
Page 291 and 292: with an 89% share in 2005. By 2030,
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Page 295 and 296: energy intensity of 9% in steel pro
Page 297 and 298: Non-Metallic Minerals The non-metal
Page 299 and 300: to 7.0% in 2005-2015 and 4.4% in 20
Page 301 and 302: Box 9.2: Prospects for Alternative
Page 303 and 304: develop their own-brand vehicles in
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Page 309 and 310: in cities is assumed to grow steadi
Page 311 and 312: Appliance efficiency improvements w
Page 313 and 314: FGD units installed, along with the
Page 315 and 316: Table 9.8: Emissions of Major Pollu
Page 317 and 318: generate almost 1.2 billion CERs by
Page 319 and 320: CHAPTER 10 REFERENCE SCENARIO SUPPL
Page 321: Figure 10.1: China’s Oil and Gas
Page 325 and 326: Oil Refining China’s refining cap
Page 327 and 328: Saudi Aramco taking combined stakes
Page 329 and 330: Box 10.2: China’s Emergency Oil S
Page 331 and 332: which close to 90% are onshore (Tab
Page 333 and 334: Table 10.5: China’s Natural Gas P
Page 335 and 336: e built, because of concerns about
Page 337 and 338: coal resources lie in the provinces
Page 339 and 340: Table 10.7: China’s Coal Producti
Page 341 and 342: of 829 Mt of coal each year by the
Page 343 and 344: An outside-plan spot market has exi
Page 345 and 346: Figure 10.13: China’s Hard Coal T
Page 347 and 348: Figure 10.14: Electricity Generatio
Page 349 and 350: China is pursuing a dual objective
Page 351 and 352: Capacity Requirements In the past t
Page 353 and 354: to consumers approximately 70% of a
Page 355 and 356: 8 Figure 10.17: Plant Generating Co
Page 357 and 358: undertaken because of its economic
Page 359 and 360: China designated biofuels as a prio
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Page 364 and 365: Background and Assumptions China’
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Page 368 and 369: Reference Scenario. More than two-t
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The slow-down in the growth of CO 2
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power generation and improving the
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of nuclear power reaches 6% of tota
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educing industrial consumption, eit
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towards gas-based ammonia productio
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Summary of Results In the Alternati
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Table 11.8: Policy Assumptions in C
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improve and appliance ownership inc
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Box 11.2: Cost-Effectiveness of Imp
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Investment in fossil-fuel supply is
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On the other hand, higher economic
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two-thirds of incremental oil deman
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Of the main final sectors, the tran
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Higher international prices also bo
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128 bcm to 216 bcm in 2030. In orde
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generation reaches 7.4 MWh, close t
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Though higher economic growth would
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The magnitude of the region’s imp
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Table 13.1: Economic Indicators by
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Figure 13.2: Share of the Coastal R
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Figure 13.3: Provincial Energy Inte
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incremental final energy demand. Fo
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Industry Industry is today the main
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the population in Beijing having ac
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The coastal provinces, with a deman
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APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 13: CHINA COAST
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PART C INDIA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS
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The Political Context India is a fe
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up from 9% in 2005 and 8.3% in 2004
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Assam are on average poorer than ma
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in manufacturing productivity was t
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Economic Challenges Continuation of
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South Asia is the least integrated
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Box 14.2: Special Economic Zones in
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ecently extended into petrochemical
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CHAPTER 15 OVERVIEW OF THE ENERGY S
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after China and the United States.
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Box 15.1: India's Energy Statistics
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which was created in 1984 to reduce
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■ Electricity Regulatory Commissi
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and production, and in liquefied na
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(because of the captive restriction
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Table 15.3: India's Integrated Ener
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of Finance's Economic Survey 2006-2
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Box 15.3: Public-Private Partnershi
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CHAPTER 16 REFERENCE SCENARIO DEMAN
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Most energy prices in India are con
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Energy demand in the residential se
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Iron and Steel Industry India’s i
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80%. Past subsidies eliminated ince
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The transport sector currently cons
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Box 16.3: Upside Potential of Trans
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Figure 16.6: Residential Fuel Mix i
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Biomass use in urban households 14
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Kerosene and LPG supply 83% of the
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Other Sectors The services sector a
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from other sources - mainly industr
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Despite improvements in thermal eff
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Oil Supply Resources and Reserves I
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and decline to just under 400 kb/d
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expansions of cracking units. Betwe
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For crude oil alone, India's import
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Figure 17.5: Main Oil and Gas Infra
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come from offshore non-associated g
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Figure 17.7: India's Natural Gas Ba
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98 billion tonnes, principally in J
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Table 17.8: Coal Production in Indi
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15 000 Figure 17.9: Coal-Mining Pro
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Figure 17.10: India's Coal Producti
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India's coal-fired power plants are
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Box 17.4: CO 2 Capture and Storage
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Box 17.5: India's Nuclear Power Gen
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8 Figure 17.13: Electricity Generat
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India receives abundant solar radia
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in power generation alone is estima
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In 2005, revenues from electricity
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Figure 17.17: Electricity Losses by
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were shut down. Despite past proble
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CHAPTER 18 ALTERNATIVE POLICY SCENA
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Key Results Energy Demand Primary e
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energy demand in the Alternative Po
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18 Figure 18.3: Local Air Pollutant
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Box 18.1: The Impacts of Climate Ch
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Summary of Results Total electricit
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Box 18.2: Performance of India's Co
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1970s hydropower accounted for arou
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35 Figure 18.8: India's Energy Savi
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to compressed natural gas (CNG), wh
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Delhi has encountered problems rela
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Policy Scenario, it is assumed that
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Figure 18.11: Change in Investment
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tariffs in the services and industr
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Background and Assumptions There ar
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period by passenger cars, is the ma
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Box 19.1: The Vehicle Stock in the
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Oil and Gas The production profile
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Electricity Electricity generation
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in 2030 will still be low, at 2.7 t
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and rising emissions of CO 2 , NO x
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Outlook for Clean Cooking Fuel and
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focus of government policy is to ex
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The government has focused many pro
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Expanding Access to Electricity in
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stoves. According to the World Heal
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Subsidies on Kerosene and LPG, and
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Uttar Pradesh (4.4 million) and Wes
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ANNEXES
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Reference Scenario: World Energy de
Page 596 and 597:
Alternative Policy Scenario: World
Page 598 and 599:
Reference Scenario: China Energy de
Page 600 and 601:
Alternative Policy Scenario: China
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Reference Scenario: India Energy de
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Alternative Policy Scenario: India
Page 606 and 607:
Reference Scenario: OECD Energy dem
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Reference Scenario: OECD North Amer
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Reference Scenario: United States E
Page 612 and 613:
Reference Scenario: OECD Pacific En
Page 614 and 615:
Reference Scenario: Japan Energy de
Page 616 and 617:
Reference Scenario: OECD Europe Ene
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Reference Scenario: European Union
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Reference Scenario: Transition econ
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Reference Scenario: Russia Energy d
Page 624 and 625:
Reference Scenario: Developing coun
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Reference Scenario: Developing Asia
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Reference Scenario: Latin America E
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Reference Scenario: Middle East Ene
Page 632 and 633:
Reference Scenario: Africa Energy d
Page 635 and 636:
ANNEX B ABBREVIATIONS, DEFINITIONS
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Coal-bed Methane Methane found in c
Page 639 and 640:
Other Renewables Includes geotherma
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international marine bunkers, excep
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Rest of Developing Asia Developing
Page 646 and 647:
IAEA IEA IGCC IMF IOC IPCC IPP LDV
Page 649 and 650:
ANNEX D REFERENCES Introduction Int
Page 651 and 652:
Stevens, C. and J. Kennan (2006), H
Page 653 and 654:
— (2004), World Energy Outlook 20
Page 655 and 656:
International Energy Agency (IEA, 2
Page 657 and 658:
Chew Chong Siang (2006), Current St
Page 659 and 660:
Williams, R. O., A. McKane et al. (
Page 661 and 662:
Garg, A. et al. (2006), “The sect
Page 663 and 664:
Malti, G. (2007), Carbon Capture an
Page 665:
Pachauri, S. (2007), An Energy Anal
Page 674:
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