World Energy Outlook 2007

power generation and improving the efficiency of coal-fired generation.
Emissions from final use of energy in industry are 0.6 Gt, or 25%, lower in
2030. Transport sector emissions are 0.3 Gt, or 23% lower. Residential, services
and agriculture sectors account for the remainder, 0.1 Gt.
Results by Sector
Power Generation
Policy Assumptions and Effects
China’s power sector now accounts for almost 40% of total energy
consumption and for almost half of total CO 2
emissions. Both these shares are
expected to rise in the future, if the government were not to make additional
efforts to diversify the electricity supply mix and to reduce CO 2
emissions and
local pollution. The Alternative Policy Scenario demonstrates that, if policies
to improve the efficiency of the way electricity is used are put in place,
electricity generation can be lower by 12% in 2030, compared with the
Reference Scenario. Total generation savings in 2030 amount to almost
1 040 TWh and installed capacity is 148 GW lower.
Table 11.2: Key Policy Assumptions in China’s Power Sector in
the Alternative Policy Scenario
Measure Description Status Assumption
Renewable National targets, priority First Greater effort to
Energy Law connection, tariffs, renewable introduction reach targets
energy fund Jan. 2006
Target for nuclear Target for 2020 to have Initial stage Greater effort to
power 40 GW in place and 18 GW in place reach targets
under construction
Faster development More R&D, production Initial stage Increased
and deployment of larger, more in place efficiency of new
of clean coal efficient units power plants
technologies
Increased efficiency Measures to increase Initial stage Increased
of existing plants efficiency of existing plants in place efficiency of
existing power
plants
Early retirement of Plans to shut down units less Initial stage Increase in
inefficient coal plants than 50 MW and 100 MW in place efficiency of
existing stock
372 World Energy Outlook 2007 - CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS