World Energy Outlook 2007

Summary of Results
In the Alternative Policy Scenario, oil savings in the transport sector amount to
2.1 mb/d in 2030, accounting for around two-thirds of the total reduction in
China’s oil demand, compared with the Reference Scenario (Table 11.7). Oil
products still account for the bulk of transport demand in 2030,
demonstrating the extent of the challenge of developing commercially-viable
alternatives to oil to satisfy mobility needs. Because of the dominant place of
road transport in transport energy consumption, new government policies are
mainly directed to this sub-sector.
Table 11.7: China’s Transport Energy Consumption and Related CO 2
Emissions in the Alternative Policy Scenario
Difference from the
Reference Scenario
in 2030
2005 2015 2030 2005- Mtoe %
2030*
Road 78 166 283 5.3 –73 –20.5
Cars 24 61 121 6.8 –43 –26.2
Trucks 31 82 138 6.1 –30 –17.9
Other 43 67 84 2.7 –20 –18.9
Total energy (Mtoe) 121 232 367 4.5 –93 –20.2
CO 2
emissions (Mt) 337 634 961 4.3 –294 –23.4
* Average annual rate of growth.
As in most other countries, policies that lead to more fuel-efficient vehicles and
earlier scrappage produce the largest savings in oil demand. By 2030, those
policies combined save 1 mb/d, or around 60%, of the road transport oil
savings in the Alternative Policy Scenario (Figure 11.8). Increased use of
biofuels and CNG accounts for 14%, modal shifts and reduced fuel
consumption in other modes for close to 10%, and other policies – mainly fuel
taxes – for the remainder.
Residential
Policy Assumptions and Effects
Strong growth in appliance ownership and residential dwelling space are the
main drivers of residential energy use. The relatively poor average efficiency of
appliances and of thermal insulation of buildings in China contributes to
380 World Energy Outlook 2007 - CHINA’S ENERGY PROSPECTS